Related papers: Simple variance bounds with applications to Bayesi…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…
An exchangeable pair approach is commonly taken in the normal and non-normal approximation using Stein's method. It has been successfully used to identify the limiting distribution and provide an error of approximation. However, when the…
We propose a novel approach to Bayesian analysis that is provably robust to outliers in the data and often has computational advantages over standard methods. Our technique is based on splitting the data into non-overlapping subgroups,…
The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…
In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…
This note describes non-asymptotic variance and tail bounds for order statistics of samples of independent identically distributed random variables. Those bounds are checked to be asymptotically tight when the sampling distribution belongs…
We introduce a modified version of the excess risk, which can be used to obtain tighter, fast-rate PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds. This modified excess risk leverages information about the relative hardness of data examples to reduce…
We focus on Bayesian inverse problems with Gaussian likelihood, linear forward model, and priors that can be formulated as a Gaussian mixture. Such a mixture is expressed as an integral of Gaussian density functions weighted by a mixing…
Bayesian classification labels observations based on given prior information, namely class-a priori and class-conditional probabilities. Bayes' risk is the minimum expected classification cost that is achieved by the Bayes' test, the…
We use Stein's method to obtain bounds on the rate of convergence for a class of statistics in geometric probability obtained as a sum of contributions from Poisson points which are exponentially stabilizing, i.e. locally determined in a…
We use coupling to study the time taken until the distribution of a statistic on a Markov chain is close to its stationary distribution. Coupling is a common technique used to obtain upper bounds on mixing times of Markov chains, and we…
Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…
Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complicated stochastic models for which the likelihood function is difficult or even impossible to calculate, and hence conventional likelihood-based inferential echniques cannot be…
In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows…
The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference,…
We use Stein's method to obtain explicit bounds on the rate of convergence for the Laplace approximation of two different sums of independent random variables; one being a random sum of mean zero random variables and the other being a…
We conduct non-asymptotic analysis on the mean-field variational inference for approximating posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models that may involve latent variables. We show that the mean-field approximation to the posterior…
We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…
Peak counts have been shown to be an excellent tool to extract the non-Gaussian part of the weak lensing signal. Recently, we developped a fast stochastic forward model to predict weak-lensing peak counts. Our model is able to reconstruct…
Let F ($\nu$) be the centered Gamma law with parameter $\nu$ > 0 and let us denote by P Y the probability distribution of a random vector Y. We develop a multidimensional variant of the Stein's method for Gamma approximation that allows to…