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Statistical modelling of sports data has become more and more popular in the recent years and different types of models have been proposed to achieve a variety of objectives: from identifying the key characteristics which lead a team to win…
The aim of this paper is to study and develop Bayesian models for the analysis of volleyball match outcomes as recorded by the set-difference. Due to the peculiarity of the outcome variable (set-difference) which takes discrete values from…
Volleyball has become a competitive sport with high physical and technical performance. Matches results are based on the players and teams'skills as technical and tactical strategies to succeed in a championship. At this point, some studies…
Modelling football outcomes has gained increasing attention, in large part due to the potential for making substantial profits. Despite the strong connection existing between football models and the bookmakers' betting odds, no authors have…
Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differential and time elapsed. The second is an adjusted version of the…
This work presents and evaluates the ranking algorithm that has been used by Federation Internationale de Volleyball (FIVB) since 2020. The prominent feature of the FIVB ranking is the use of the probabilistic model, which explicitly…
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become…
We consider the task of determining a football player's ability for a given event type, for example, scoring a goal. We propose an interpretable Bayesian model which is fit using variational inference methods. We implement a Poisson model…
Predicting performance outcomes has the potential to transform training approaches, inform coaching strategies, and deepen our understanding of the factors that contribute to athletic success. Traditional non-automated data analysis in…
In this study we focus on the prediction of basketball games in the Euroleague competition using machine learning modelling. The prediction is a binary classification problem, predicting whether a match finishes 1 (home win) or 2 (away…
The progression of a single point in volleyball starts with a serve and then alternates between teams, each team allowed up to three contacts with the ball. Using charted data from the 2022 NCAA Division I women's volleyball season (4,147…
Bayesian regression games are a special class of two-player general-sum Bayesian games in which the learner is partially informed about the adversary's objective through a Bayesian prior. This formulation captures the uncertainty in regard…
Machine learning, classification and prediction models have applications across a range of fields. Sport analytics is an increasingly popular application, but most existing work is focused on automated refereeing in mainstream sports and…
Handball has received growing interest during the last years, including academic research for many different aspects of the sport. On the other hand modelling the outcome of the game has attracted less interest mainly because of the…
Biathlon is a unique winter sport that combines precision rifle marksmanship with the endurance demands of cross-country skiing. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to predict and understand shooting performance using data from the…
In this paper, Poisson time series models are considered to describe the number of field goals made by a basketball team or player at both the game (within-season) and the minute (within-game) level. To deal with the existence of temporal…
We consider the task of determining the number of chances a soccer team creates, along with the composite nature of each chance-the players involved and the locations on the pitch of the assist and the chance. We propose an interpretable…
Predicting the results of soccer matches is of great interest. This is not only due to the popularity of the sport and the joy of private "betting rounds", but also due to the large sports betting market. Where previously expert knowledge…
Statistical applications in sports have long centered on how to best separate signal (e.g. team talent) from random noise. However, most of this work has concentrated on a single sport, and the development of meaningful cross-sport…
In volleyball games, we define a rally as the succession of events observed since the ball is served until one of the two teams on the court scores the point. In this process, athletes evolve in response to physical and information…