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The time of the first occurrence of a threshold crossing event in a stochastic process, known as the first passage time, is of interest in many areas of sciences and engineering. Conventionally, there is an implicit assumption that the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-24 Aanjaneya Kumar , Aniket Zodage , M. S. Santhanam

There is a lack of methodological results for continuous time change detection due to the challenges of noninformative prior specification and efficient posterior inference in this setting. Most methodologies to date assume data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Dan Cunha , Mark Friedl , Luis Carvalho

Many scientific questions can be framed as asking for a first passage time (FPT), which generically describes the time it takes a random "searcher" to find a "target." The important timescale in a variety of biophysical systems is the time…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-18 Hwai-Ray Tung , Sean D Lawley

First passage phenomena arise across physics, biology, and finance when stochastic processes first reach a threshold, triggering downstream events. Examples include the irreversible exit from a domain, a biochemical reaction, a financial…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-06 Maria R. D'Orsogna , Alan E. Lindsay , Thomas Hillen

We study the transport of many partially distinguishable and possibly interacting particles under the action of repeated projective measurements on a target space and investigate how the particles' interference affects the mean first…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-05-10 Christoph Dittel , Niklas Neubrand , Felix Thiel , Andreas Buchleitner

We investigate an M/M/1 queue operating in two switching environments, where the switch is governed by a two-state time-homogeneous Markov chain. This model allows to describe a system that is subject to regular operating phases alternating…

Motivated by a general principle governing regulation mechanisms in biological cells, we investigate a general interaction scheme between different populations of particles and specific particles, referred to as agents. Assuming that each…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-10 Vincent Fromion , Philippe Robert , Jana Zaherddine

We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-03 Piotr Gwiżdż , Marta Tyran-Kamińska

How much time does it take for a fluctuating system, such as a polymer chain, to reach a target configuration that is rarely visited -- typically because of a high energy cost ? This question generally amounts to the determination of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-03-18 Nicolas Levernier , Olivier Bénichou , Raphaël Voituriez , Thomas Guérin

New results on conditional joint probability distributions of first exit times are presented for a continuous-time stochastic process defined as the mixture of Markov jump processes moving at different speeds on the same finite state space,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-19 B. A. Surya

Using a novel theoretical approach, we study the mean first encounter time (MFET) between the two ends of a polymer. Previous approaches used various simplifications that reduced the complexity of the problem, leading, however to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-12-23 Assaf Amitai , Ivan Kupka , David Holcman

How long does it take a random walker to reach a given target point? This quantity, known as a first passage time (FPT), has led to a growing number of theoretical investigations over the last decade1. The importance of FPTs originates from…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 S. Condamin , O. Benichou , V. Tejedor , R. Voituriez , J. Klafter

The usual random walk on a group (homogeneous both in time and in space) is determined by a probability measure on the group. In a random walk with random transition probabilities this single measure is replaced with a stationary sequence…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Vadim A. Kaimanovich , Yuri Kifer , Ben-Zion Rubshtein

We present rigorous results for the mean first passage time and first passage time statistics for two-channel Markov additive diffusion in a 3-dimensional spherical domain. Inspired by biophysical examples we assume that the particle can…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-02-01 Aljaz Godec , Ralf Metzler

We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-03-25 Jaume Masoliver , Josep Perello

We introduce a general approach for the study of the collective dynamics of non-interacting random walkers on connected networks. We analyze the movement of $R$ independent (Markovian) walkers, each defined by its own transition matrix. By…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-04-20 Alejandro P. Riascos , David P. Sanders

This paper studies a novel approach for approximating the behavior of compartmental spreading processes. In contrast to prior work, the methods developed describe a dynamics which bound the exact moment dynamics, without explicitly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-07-21 Nicholas J. Watkins , Cameron Nowzari , Victor M. Preciado , George J. Pappas

The first-passage time (FPT), i.e., the moment when a stochastic process reaches a given threshold value for the first time, is a fundamental mathematical concept with immediate applications. In particular, it quantifies the statistics of…

Subcellular Processes · Quantitative Biology 2018-12-05 Denis S. Grebenkov , Ralf Metzler , Gleb Oshanin

The first hitting times of a stochastic process, i.e., the first time a process reaches a particular level, are of significant interest across various scientific disciplines, including biology, chemistry, and economics. We modify the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-02-24 Bartosz Zbik , Bartłomiej Dybiec , Karol Capała , Zbigniew Palmowski , Igor M. Sokolov

We consider a leaky integrate-and-fire neuron with deterministic subthreshold dynamics and a firing threshold that evolves as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The formulation of this minimal model is motivated by the experimentally observed…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-12 Wilhelm Braun , Paul C. Matthews , Rüdiger Thul
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