Related papers: Expected Hypothetical Completion Probability
The classical Prophet Inequality arises from a fundamental problem in optimal-stopping theory. In this problem, a gambler sees a finite sequence of independent, non-negative random variables. If he stops the sequence at any time, he…
Motivated by emerging decentralized applications, the \emph{game of coding} framework has been recently introduced to address scenarios where the adversary's control over coded symbols surpasses the fundamental limits of traditional coding…
The security in networked systems depends greatly on recognizing and identifying adversarial behaviors. Traditional detection methods focus on specific categories of attacks and have become inadequate for increasingly stealthy and deceptive…
Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend…
The equilibrium selection problem in the generalized Nash equilibrium problem (GNEP) has recently been studied as an optimization problem, defined over the set of all variational equilibria achievable through a lower-level non-cooperative…
Split conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage, but produces constant-width intervals that overcover in low-variance regions and undercover in high-variance regions. Existing…
In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…
Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…
In American football, a pass rush is an attempt by the defensive team to disrupt the offense and prevent the quarterback (QB) from completing a pass. Existing metrics for assessing pass rush performance are either discrete-time quantities…
We consider probabilistic systems with hidden state and unobservable transitions, an extension of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that in particular admits unobservable {\epsilon}-transitions (also called null transitions), allowing state…
We present a novel framework for predicting next actions in soccer possessions by leveraging path signatures to encode their complex spatio-temporal structure. Unlike existing approaches, we do not rely on fixed historical windows and…
We study the maximum information gain that an adversary may obtain through hacking without being detected. Consider a dynamical process observed by a sensor that transmits a local estimate of the system state to a remote estimator according…
The delayed feedback problem is one of the imperative challenges in online advertising, which is caused by the highly diversified feedback delay of a conversion varying from a few minutes to several days. It is hard to design an appropriate…
The paper is concerned with distributed learning in large-scale games. The well-known fictitious play (FP) algorithm is addressed, which, despite theoretical convergence results, might be impractical to implement in large-scale settings due…
We study an information-structure design problem (a.k.a. persuasion) with a single sender and multiple receivers with actions of a priori unknown types, independently drawn from action-specific marginal distributions. As in the standard…
Low probability of detection (or covert) communication refers to the scenario where information must be sent reliably to a receiver, but with low probability of detection by an adversary. Recent works on the fundamental limits of this…
Expectation Propagation (EP) is a widely used iterative message-passing algorithm that decomposes a global inference problem into multiple local ones. It approximates marginal distributions as ``beliefs'' using intermediate functions called…
In football, attacking teams attempt to break through the opponent's defensive line to create scoring opportunities. This action, known as a Line Break, is a critical indicator of offensive effectiveness and tactical performance, yet…
This work draws on the conjecture that fingerprints of stochastic event sequences can be retrieved from electroencephalographic data (EEG) recorded during a behavioral task. To test this, we used the Goalkeeper Game (game.numec.prp.usp.br).…
Line-breaking passes (LBPs) are crucial tactical actions in football, allowing teams to penetrate defensive lines and access high-value spaces. In this study, we present an unsupervised, clustering-based framework for detecting and…