Related papers: Expected Hypothetical Completion Probability
We provide a necessary and sufficient condition under which a convex set is approachable in a game with partial monitoring, i.e.\ where players do not observe their opponents' moves but receive random signals. This condition is an extension…
Deception plays a critical role in many interactions in communication and network security. Game-theoretic models called "cheap talk signaling games" capture the dynamic and information asymmetric nature of deceptive interactions. But…
This paper pioneers a nonroutine network traffic prediction (NNTP) method to prospectively provide a theoretical basis for avoiding large-scale network disruption by accurately predicting bursty traffic. Certain events that impact user…
We propose a new sequential Efficient Pseudo-Likelihood (k-EPL) estimator for dynamic discrete choice games of incomplete information. k-EPL considers the joint behavior of multiple players simultaneously, as opposed to individual responses…
Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives…
Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online…
A popular quantitative approach to evaluating player performance in sports involves comparing an observed outcome to the expected outcome ignoring player involvement, which is estimated using statistical or machine learning methods. In…
We revisit the TCP-modified Engset model proposed by Heyman et al. in [1]. The model deals with the superposition of a limited number of TCP connections alternating between file transmission and silence in a web-like fashion. We consider…
This paper primarily focuses on computing the Euclidean projection of a vector onto the $\ell_{p}$ ball in which $p\in(0,1)$. Such a problem emerges as the core building block in statistical machine learning and signal processing tasks…
While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…
Uncertain knowledge graph embedding (UnKGE) methods learn vector representations that capture both structural and uncertainty information to predict scores of unseen triples. However, existing methods produce only point estimates, without…
The $k$-ExactCover problem is a parameterized version of the ExactCover problem, in which we are given a universe $U$, a collection $S$ of subsets of $U$, and an integer $k$, and the task is to determine whether $U$ can be partitioned into…
We develop a new sampling method to estimate eigenvector centrality on incomplete networks. Our goal is to estimate this global centrality measure having at disposal a limited amount of data. This is the case in many real-world scenarios…
The problem of sequentially maximizing the expectation of a function seeks to maximize the expected value of a function of interest without having direct control on its features. Instead, the distribution of such features depends on a given…
Recent advancements in algorithms for sequential decision-making under imperfect information have shown remarkable success in large games such as limit- and no-limit poker. These algorithms traditionally formalize the games using the…
We study asymptotic properties of expectation propagation (EP) -- a method for approximate inference originally developed in the field of machine learning. Applied to generalized linear models, EP iteratively computes a multivariate…
This article deals with stochastic processes endowed with the Markov (memoryless) property and evolving over general (uncountable) state spaces. The models further depend on a non-deterministic quantity in the form of a control input, which…
Evaluating defensive performance in soccer remains challenging, as effective defending is often expressed not through visible on-ball actions such as interceptions and tackles, but through preventing dangerous opportunities before they…
The game of Cops and Robbers is an important model for studying computational queries in pursuit-evasion environments, among others. As recent logical explorations have shown, its structure exhibits appealing analogies with modal logic. In…
We can construct passing networks when we regard a player as a node and a pass as a link in football games. Thus, we can analyze the networks by using tools developed in network science. Among various metrics characterizing a network,…