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In this paper, we develop a general law of large numbers and central limit theorem for cumulative reward processes associated with finite state Markov jump processes with non-stationary transition rates. Such models commonly arise in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Monte Fischer , Peter W. Glynn

The now classical convergence in distribution theorem for well normalized sums ofstationary martingale increments has been extended to multi-indexed martingaleincrements (see Voln\'{y} (2019) and references in there). In the presentarticle…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-05-24 Davide Giraudo , Emmanuel Lesigne , Dalibor Volny

We prove quenched versions of (i) a large deviations principle (LDP), (ii) a central limit theorem (CLT), and (iii) a local central limit theorem (LCLT) for non-autonomous dynamical systems. A key advance is the extension of the spectral…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Davor Dragicevic , Gary Froyland , Cecilia Gonzalez-Tokman , Sandro Vaienti

This paper considers continuous-time block-monotone Markov chains (BMMCs) and their block-augmented truncations. We first introduce the block monotonicity and block-wise dominance relation for continuous-time Markov chains, and then provide…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Hiroyuki Masuyama

We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-24 Ramon van Handel

This paper studies Hoeffding's inequality for Markov chains under the generalized concentrability condition defined via integral probability metric (IPM). The generalized concentrability condition establishes a framework that interpolates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-06 Hao Chen , Abhishek Gupta , Yin Sun , Ness Shroff

In this paper, we establish moment and Bernstein-type inequalities for additive functionals of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. These inequalities extend the corresponding inequalities for independent random variables. Our conditions…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Sergey Samsonov

Consider a stochastic process $\{X(t)\}$ on a finite state space $ {\sf X}=\{1,\dots, d\}$. It is conditionally Markov, given a real-valued `input process' $\{\zeta(t)\}$. This is assumed to be small, which is modeled through the scaling,…

Performance · Computer Science 2018-09-18 Yue Chen , Ana Bušić , Sean Meyn

This paper is concerned with the limiting spectral behaviors of large dimensional Kendall's rank correlation matrices generated by samples with independent and continuous components. We do not require the components to be identically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-16 Zeng Li , Qinwen Wang , Runze Li

We prove a central limit theorem for a certain class of functions on sparse rank-one inhomogeneous random graphs endowed with additional i.i.d. edge and vertex weights. Our proof of the central limit theorem uses a perturbative form of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-22 Anja Sturm , Moritz Wemheuer

Bifurcating Markov chains (BMC) are Markov chains indexed by a full binary tree representing the evolution of a trait along a population where each individual has two children. Motivated by the functional estimation of the density of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-17 S. Valère Bitseki Penda , Jean-François Delmas

A classical problem for Markov chains is determining their stationary (or steady-state) distribution. This problem has an equally classical solution based on eigenvectors and linear equation systems. However, this approach does not scale to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-20 Tobias Meggendorfer

We study branching Markov chains on a countable state space (space of types) $\mathscr{X}$, with the focus on the qualitative aspects of the limit behaviour of the evolving empirical population distributions. No conditions are imposed on…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-30 Vadim A. Kaimanovich , Wolfgang Woess

Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

We consider generalizations of Schuetzenberger's promotion operator on the set L of linear extensions of a finite poset of size n. This gives rise to a strongly connected graph on L. By assigning weights to the edges of the graph in two…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2014-05-06 Arvind Ayyer , Steven Klee , Anne Schilling

We study the approximation of a Markov chain on a reduced state space, for both discrete- and continuous-time Markov chains. In this context, we extend the existing theory of formal error bounds for the approximated transient distributions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-12 Fabian Michel , Markus Siegle

We find a sufficient condition under which a central limit theorem for a stationary linear process is quenched. We find a stationary linear process szatisfying the Maxwell-Woodroofe condition for which the variances of partial sums are…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-22 Dalibor Volny , Michael Woodroofe

Consider the partial sums {S_t} of a real-valued functional F(Phi(t)) of a Markov chain {Phi(t)} with values in a general state space. Assuming only that the Markov chain is geometrically ergodic and that the functional F is bounded, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ioannis Kontoyiannis , Sean Meyn

Classical Edgeworth expansions provide asymptotic correction terms to the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) up to an order that depends on the number of moments available. In this paper, we provide subsequent correction terms beyond those given…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-23 Henry Lam , Jose Blanchet , Damian Burch , Martin Z. Bazant

This paper contributes an in-depth study of properties of continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) on non-negative integer lattices $\N_0^d$, with particular interest in one-dimensional CTMCs with polynomial transitions rates. Such stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-22 Chuang Xu , Mads Christian Hansen , Carsten Wiuf