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The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…
We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…
In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…
Classical evolutionary approaches for multiobjective optimization are quite accurate but incur a lot of queries to the objectives; this can be prohibitive when objectives are expensive oracles. A sample-efficient approach to solving…
Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide its search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the…
Quantum mechanics for many-body systems may be reduced to the evaluation of integrals in 3N dimensions using Monte-Carlo, providing the Quantum Monte Carlo ab initio methods. Here we limit ourselves to expectation values for trial…
Bayesian Optimization is a sample-efficient black-box optimization procedure that is typically applied to problems with a small number of independent objectives. However, in practice we often wish to optimize objectives defined over many…
Bayesian optimization has become a popular method for high-throughput computing, like the design of computer experiments or hyperparameter tuning of expensive models, where sample efficiency is mandatory. In these applications, distributed…
The Python package pyABC provides a framework for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a likelihood-free parameter inference method popular in many research areas. At its core, it implements a sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) scheme, with…
We present a novel preference learning framework to capture participant preferences efficiently within limited interaction rounds. It involves three main contributions. First, we develop a variational Bayesian approach to infer the…
Much recent research has been conducted in the area of Bayesian learning, particularly with regard to the optimization of hyper-parameters via Gaussian process regression. The methodologies rely chiefly on the method of maximizing the…
Monte Carlo integration becomes prohibitively expensive when each sample requires a high-fidelity model evaluation. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification methods mitigate this by combining estimators from high- and low-fidelity models,…
The optimization of expensive black-box functions is ubiquitous in science and engineering. A common solution to this problem is Bayesian optimization (BO), which is generally comprised of two components: (i) a surrogate model and (ii) an…
Motivated by the growing need for black-box optimization and data privacy, we introduce a collaborative Bayesian optimization (BO) framework that addresses both of these challenges. In this framework agents work collaboratively to optimize…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful technology for optimizing noisy expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions, with a broad range of real-world applications in science, engineering, economics, manufacturing, and beyond. In this paper,…
We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a popular framework for optimizing black-box functions. Despite its effectiveness, BO is often inefficient for high-dimensional problems due to the exponential growth of the search space, heterogeneity of the…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular, sample-efficient technique for expensive, black-box optimization. One such problem arising in manufacturing is that of maximizing the reliability, or equivalently minimizing the probability of a…
In this paper we propose an efficient stochastic optimization algorithm to search for Bayesian experimental designs such that the expected information gain is maximized. The gradient of the expected information gain with respect to…
Bayesian Optimization (BO) has become a core method for solving expensive black-box optimization problems. While much research focussed on the choice of the acquisition function, we focus on online length-scale adaption and the choice of…