Related papers: Understanding and Pushing the Limits of the Elo Ra…
We introduce a class of extensive form games where players might not be able to foresee the possible consequences of their decisions and form a model of their opponents which they exploit to achieve a more profitable outcome. We improve…
-Much work has been devoted to the computational complexity of games. However, they are not necessarily relevant for estimating the complexity in human terms. Therefore, human-centered measures have been proposed, e.g. the depth. This paper…
How likely is it that Magnus Carlsen will achieve an Elo rating of $2900$? This has been a goal of Magnus and is of great current interest to the chess community. Our paper uses probabilistic methods to address this question. The…
Reinforcement Learning (RL) heavily relies on the careful design of the reward function. However, accurately assigning rewards to each state-action pair in Long-Term Reinforcement Learning (LTRL) tasks remains a significant challenge. As a…
Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the…
Benchmarks for the evaluation of model performance play an important role in machine learning. However, there is no established way to describe and create new benchmarks. What is more, the most common benchmarks use performance measures…
One of the main goals of online competitive games is increasing player engagement by ensuring fair matches. These games use rating systems for creating balanced match-ups. Rating systems leverage statistical estimation to rate players'…
In competitive games, strength ratings like Elo are widely used to quantify player skill and support matchmaking by accounting for skill disparities better than simple win rate statistics. However, scalar ratings cannot handle complex…
This paper studies how the Elo rating system behaves when the underlying modelling assumptions are not met.
In this manuscript, we concentrate on a specific type of covariates, which we call statistically enhanced, for modeling tennis matches for men at Grand slam tournaments. Our goal is to assess whether these enhanced covariates have the…
As intelligent agents become more generally-capable, i.e. able to master a wide variety of tasks, the complexity and cost of properly evaluating them rises significantly. Tasks that assess specific capabilities of the agents can be…
In this work we study the ranking algorithm used by F\'ed\'eration Internationale de Football Association (FIFA); we analyze the parameters it currently uses, show the formal probabilistic model from which it can be derived, and optimize…
Winner-take-all competitions in forecasting and machine-learning suffer from distorted incentives. Witkowski et al. 2018 identified this problem and proposed ELF, a truthful mechanism to select a winner. We show that, from a pool of $n$…
Accurate estimation of question difficulty and prediction of student performance play key roles in optimizing educational instruction and enhancing learning outcomes within digital learning platforms. The Elo rating system is widely…
Language models have shown unprecedented capabilities, sparking debate over the source of their performance. Is it merely the outcome of learning syntactic patterns and surface level statistics, or do they extract semantics and a world…
Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal \'{E}l\H{o}…
The Elo rating system has been recognised as an effective method for modelling students and items within adaptive educational systems. The existing Elo-based models have the limiting assumption that items are only tagged with a single…
This paper employs a Skellam process to represent real-time betting odds for English Premier League (EPL) soccer games. Given a matrix of market odds on all possible score outcomes, we estimate the expected scoring rates for each team. The…
Competition is a primary driver of player satisfaction and engagement in multiplayer online games. Traditional matchmaking systems aim at creating matches involving teams of similar aggregated individual skill levels, such as Elo score or…
We consider graph games of infinite duration with winning conditions in parameterized linear temporal logic, where the temporal operators are equipped with variables for time bounds. In model checking such specifications were introduced as…