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It can be argued that optimal prediction should take into account all available data. Therefore, to evaluate a prediction interval's performance one should employ conditional coverage probability, conditioning on all available observations.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-02 Yunyi Zhang , Dimitris N. Politis

One of the most commonly used methods for forming confidence intervals for statistical inference is the empirical bootstrap, which is especially expedient when the limiting distribution of the estimator is unknown. However, despite its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Morgane Austern , Vasilis Syrgkanis

It is widely acknowledged that the biomedical literature suffer from a surfeit of false positive results. Part of the reason for this is the persistence of the myth that observation of a p value less than 0.05 is sufficient justification to…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-28 David Colquhoun

In statistical inference, confidence set procedures are typically evaluated based on their validity and width properties. Even when procedures achieve rate-optimal widths, confidence sets can still be excessively wide in practice due to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-20 Kenta Takatsu

The asymptotic behaviour of the commonly used bootstrap percentile confidence interval is investigated when the parameters are subject to linear inequality constraints. We concentrate on the important one- and two-sample problems with data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-06 Chunlin Wang , Paul Marriott , Pengfei Li

We consider the classic problem of interval estimation of a proportion $p$ based on binomial sampling. The "exact" Clopper-Pearson confidence interval for $p$ is known to be unnecessarily conservative. We propose coverage-adjustments of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-11 Måns Thulin

Consider the observation of n iid realizations of an experiment with d>1 possible outcomes, which corresponds to a single observation of a multinomial distribution M(n,p) where p is an unknown discrete distribution on {1,...,d}. In many…

Computation · Statistics 2010-06-15 Djalil Chafai , Didier Concordet

The purpose of this paper is to propose methodologies for statistical inference of low-dimensional parameters with high-dimensional data. We focus on constructing confidence intervals for individual coefficients and linear combinations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-05 Cun-Hui Zhang , Stephanie S. Zhang

By employing various empirical estimators for the Mutual Information (MI) measure, we calculate and compare the estimates and their confidence intervals for both normal and non-normal bivariate data samples. We find that certain nonlinear…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Theo Grigorenko , Leo Grigorenko

In Neyman's original formulation, a 1-alpha confidence interval procedure is justified by its long-run coverage properties, and a single realized interval is to be described only by the slogan that it either covers the parameter or it does…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-03-19 Scott Lee

In econometrics, many parameters of interest can be written as ratios of expectations. The main approach to construct confidence intervals for such parameters is the delta method. However, this asymptotic procedure yields intervals that may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Alexis Derumigny , Lucas Girard , Yannick Guyonvarch

Interval estimation of the probability of success in a Binomial model is considered. Zieli\'nski (2018) showed that the confidence interval which uses information about non-homogeneity of the sample is better than the classical one. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-28 Stanisław Jaworski , Wojciech Zieliński

Measurements are generally collected as unilateral or bilateral data in clinical trials or observational studies. For example, in ophthalmology studies, the primary outcome is often obtained from one eye or both eyes of an individual. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-01 Kejia Wang , Chang-Xing Ma

We congratulate the authors on their exciting paper, which introduces a novel idea for assessing the estimation bias in causal estimates. Doubly robust estimators are now part of the standard set of tools in causal inference, but a typical…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-18 Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry A. Wasserman

In this paper we first provide a method to compute confidence intervals for the center of a piecewise normal distribution given a sample from this distribution, under certain assumptions. We then extend this method to an asymptotic setting,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-08 Shu Lu , Hongsheng Liu

We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting Bayes factors based on a parameter estimate and its standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-28 Samuel Pawel , Alexander Ly , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

When knowledge is obtained from a database, it is only possible to deduce confidence intervals for probability values. With confidence intervals replacing point values, the results in the set covering model include interval constraints for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Richard E. Neapolitan , James Kenevan

In the analysis of survey data it is of interest to estimate and quantify uncertainty about means or totals for each of several non-overlapping subpopulations, or areas. When the sample size for a given area is small, standard confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-26 Kyle Burris , Peter Hoff

We discuss a new method for setting limits on small signals in the presence of background noise. The method is based on a combination of a two dimensional confidence region and the large sample approximation to the likelihood ratio test…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-10-31 Wolfgang A. Rolke , Angel M. Lopez

The following questions are discussed: ``Why confidence intervals are a hot topic?''; ``Are confidence intervals objective?''; ``What is the usefulness of coverage?''; ``How to obtain useful information from experiment?''; ``The confidence…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 C. Giunti