Related papers: Nonlinear Dynamic Models of Conflict via Multiplex…
Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…
Causal mediation analysis usually requires strong assumptions, such as ignorability of the mediator, which may not hold in many social and scientific studies. Motivated by a multilevel randomized treatment experiment using functional…
This paper studies opinion dynamics in multilayer (social) networks. Extending a single-layer model, we formulate opinion updates as a synchronous coordination game in which agents minimize a local cost to stay close to their neighbors'…
In the recent period of time with a lot of social platforms emerging, the relationships among various units can be framed with respect to either positive, negative or no relation. These units can be individuals, countries or others that…
We study conflict situations that dynamically arise in traffic scenarios, where different agents try to achieve their set of goals and have to decide on what to do based on their local perception. We distinguish several types of conflicts…
A dynamical model of the natural conflict triad is investigated. The conflict interacting substances of the triad are: some biological population, a living resource, and a negative factor (e.g., infection diseases). We suppose that each…
Dynamic network analysis has found an increasing interest in the literature because of the importance of different kinds of dynamic social networks, biological networks, and economic networks. Most available probability and statistical…
Social norms are shared rules that govern and facilitate social interaction. Violating such social norms via teasing and insults may serve to upend power imbalances or, on the contrary reinforce solidarity and rapport in conversation,…
Game-theoretical models where the rules of the game and the interaction structure both coevolves with the game dynamics -- multiadaptive games -- capture very flexible situations where cooperation among selfish agents can emerge. In this…
Opinion dynamics models how the publicly expressed opinions of users in a social network coevolve according to their neighbors as well as their own intrinsic opinion. Motivated by the real-world manipulation of social networks during the…
We draw on the data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System on millions of international and regional public news stories, and this system's indicators of the orientation toward a specific nation-state. We construct the…
This paper proposes a simple model to capture the complexity of multi-layer systems where their constituent layers affect, are affected by, each other. The physical layer is a circuit composed by a power source and resistors in parallel.…
The idea of a hierarchical spatial organization of society lies at the core of seminal theories in human geography that have strongly influenced our understanding of social organization. In the same line, the recent availability of…
Modern armed conflicts have a tendency to cluster together and spread geographically. However, the geography of most conflicts remains under-studied. To fill this gap, this article presents a new indicator that measures two key geographical…
An important way to resolve games of conflict (snowdrift, hawk-dove, chicken) involves adopting a convention: a correlated equilibrium that avoids any conflict between aggressive strategies. Dynamic networks allow individuals to resolve…
We study the severity of conflict-related violence in Colombia at an unprecedented granular scale in space and across time. Splitting the data into different geographical regions and different historically-relevant eras, we uncover…
Armed conflict exhibits regularities beyond known power law distributions of fatalities and duration over varying culture and geography. We systematically cluster conflict reports from a database of $10^5$ events from Africa spanning 20…
Here we numerically study a model of excitable media, namely, a network with occasionally quiet nodes and connection weights that vary with activity on a short-time scale. Even in the absence of stimuli, this exhibits unstable dynamics,…
In the past decade, cities have experienced rapid growth, expansion, and changes in their community structure. Many aspects of critical urban infrastructure are closely coupled with the human communities that they serve. Urban communities…
Social networks with positive and negative links often split into two antagonistic factions. Examples of such a split abound: revolutionaries versus an old regime, Republicans versus Democrats, Axis versus Allies during the second world…