Related papers: Nonlinear Dynamic Models of Conflict via Multiplex…
Bayesian neural networks were used to model the relationship between input parameters, Democracy, Allies, Contingency, Distance, Capability, Dependency and Major Power, and the output parameter which is either peace or conflict. The…
The focus of this paper is an approach to the modeling of longitudinal social network or relational data. Such data arise from measurements on pairs of objects or actors made at regular temporal intervals, resulting in a social network for…
Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion…
Urban flood risk emerges from complex and nonlinear interactions among multiple features related to flood hazard, flood exposure, and social and physical vulnerabilities, along with the complex spatial flood dependence relationships.…
We consider large but finite systems of identical agents on the line with up to next nearest neighbor asymmetric coupling. Each agent is modelled by a linear second order differential equation, linearly coupled to up to four of its…
Humans do not always make rational choices, a fact that experimental economics is putting on solid grounds. The social context plays an important role in determining our actions, and often we imitate friends or acquaintances without any…
We live in a world full of networks where our economy, our communication, and even our social life crucially depends on them. These networks typically emerge from the interaction of many entities, which is why researchers study agent-based…
Statistical network models are useful for understanding the underlying formation mechanism and characteristics of complex networks. However, statistical models for \textit{signed networks} have been largely unexplored. In signed networks,…
Time plays an essential role in the diffusion of information, influence and disease over networks. In many cases we only observe when a node copies information, makes a decision or becomes infected -- but the connectivity, transmission…
With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global…
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based…
The deterrent effect of military alliances is well documented and widely accepted. However, such work has typically assumed that alliances are exogenous. This is problematic as alliances may simultaneously influence the probability of…
Randomized experiments, or "A/B" tests, remain the gold standard for evaluating the causal effect of a policy intervention or product change. However, experimental settings, such as social networks, where users are interacting and…
Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between…
Complex contagion models that involve contagion along higher-order structures, such as simplicial complexes and hypergraphs, yield new classes of mean-field models. Interestingly, the differential equations arising from many such models…
For decades, researchers in fields, such as the natural and social sciences, have been verifying causal relationships and investigating hypotheses that are now well-established or understood as truth. These causal mechanisms are properties…
Understanding the emergence of inequality in complex systems requires attention to both structural dynamics and intrinsic heterogeneity. In the context of opinion dynamics, traditional models relied on static snapshots or assumed…
This paper presents the research of the influence of cognitive, behavioral, representational factors on the susceptibility of the participants in social networks to misinformation, as well as on the activity of the nodes in this regard. The…
Conflict fatalities tend to follow heavy-tailed statistical distributions. A 2005 fusion-fission theory predicts mathematically that for armed groups operating in dynamically evolving clusters within a given conflict, the number of…
Correlations between anomalous activity patterns can yield pertinent information about complex social processes: a significant deviation from normal behavior, exhibited simultaneously by multiple pairs of actors, provides evidence for some…