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Recent epidemiological studies have hypothesized that the prevalence of cortical cataracts is closely related to ultraviolet radiation. However, the prevalence of nuclear cataracts is higher in elderly people in tropical areas than in…
This paper presents the first study of the long-term impact of climate change on photovoltaic potential in South America. This region has great potential for implementing renewable energy, mainly solar energy solutions, due to its high…
We present results on a stochastic forest fire model, where the influence of the neighbour trees is treated in a more realistic way than usual and the definition of neighbourhood can be tuned by an additional parameter. This model exhibits…
The effect of changing greenhouse gas concentrations on climate was examined. Calculations of the climate sensitivity, the warming of the Earth due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, are discussed. Ontario was responsible for 0.35% of the…
Vegetation often understood merely as the result of long-term climate conditions. However, vegetation itself plays a fundamental role in shaping Earth's climate by regulating the energy, water, and biogeochemical cycles across terrestrial…
In this work, we study the propagation of wildfires using an advection--diffusion--reaction model which also includes convective and radiative heat loss. An existing model is discussed \cite{asensio_2002} and a physically consistent…
Statistical methods are required to evaluate and quantify the uncertainty in environmental processes, such as land and sea surface temperature, in a changing climate. Typically, annual harmonics are used to characterize the variation in the…
Understanding the role of vegetation fires in the Earth system has become an important environmental problem. Although fires time occurrence is mainly influenced by climate, human activity related with land use and management has altered…
A wildfire model is formulated based on balance equations for energy and fuel, where the fuel loss due to combustion corresponds to the fuel reaction rate. The resulting coupled partial differential equations have coefficients that can be…
The Albertine Rift region faces rapid human population growth, while being a biodiversity hotspot. Using satellite-derived continuous forest cover change data, we examined national socioeconomic, demographic, and agricultural production…
We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate…
In this paper we investigate the acceleration of the expansion of premixed spherical flames and evolution of the cellular patterns on their surfaces. An asymptotic model is used for the simulations and a spectral numerical algorithm is…
Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread…
Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…
Climate change has intensified extreme weather and wildfire conditions globally. Canada experienced record-breaking wildfires in 2023 and 2025, burning millions of hectares and severely impacting the Prairie provinces, with Manitoba facing…
Viral kinetics have been extensively studied in the past through the use of spatially homogeneous ordinary differential equations describing the time evolution of the diseased state. However, spatial characteristics such as localized…
Wildfires pose significant threats to ecosystems and communities, yet accurately modeling fire spread remains challenging, particularly in regions where environmental and fuel data are scarce or unavailable. This study introduces an…
Our study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on corn farming in Ontario under several warming scenarios at the 2068 horizon. It is articulated around a discrete-time dynamic model of corn farm income with an annual time-step,…
Dynamic mean field theory is applied to the problem of forest fires. The starting point is the Monte Carlo simulation in a lattice of million cells. The statistics of the clusters is obtained by means of the Hoshen--Kopelman algorithm. We…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…