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The Burning Index (BI) produced daily by the United States government's National Fire Danger Rating System is commonly used in forecasting the hazard of wildfire activity in the United States. However, recent evaluations have shown the BI…

Applications · Statistics 2011-08-04 Haiyong Xu , Frederic Paik Schoenberg

Models for wildfires must be stochastic if their ability to represent wildfires is to be objectively assessed. The need for models to be stochastic emerges naturally from the physics of the fire, and methods for assessing fit are…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-11-03 Jeffrey Picka

Forest fires pose a natural threat with devastating social, environmental, and economic implications. The rapid and highly uncertain rate of spread of wildfires necessitates a trustworthy digital tool capable of providing real-time…

Siberian wildfires and related regional anomalies of atmospheric impurities during the period of 2000-2019 are analyzed. The long-range transport of biomass burning products from Siberian wildfires into the Arctic atmosphere during the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-15 Igor I. Mokhov , Sergei A. Sitnov

Computational simulations of wildfire spread typically employ empirical rate-of-spread calculations under various conditions (such as terrain, fuel type, weather). Small perturbations in conditions can often lead to significant changes in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Andrew Bolt , Carolyn Huston , Petra Kuhnert , Joel Janek Dabrowski , James Hilton , Conrad Sanderson

The increasing frequency and scale of wildfires carry significant ecological, socioeconomic, and environmental implications, prompting the need for a deeper grasp of wildfire characteristics. Essential meteorological factors like…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-08-08 Ghazal Farhani

Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-12 Qibin Duan , Clare A. McGrory , Glenn Brown , Kerrie Mengersen , You-Gan Wang

Wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent and devastating, and therefore the technology to combat them must adapt accordingly. Modern predictive models have failed to balance predictive accuracy and operational viability, resulting in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-10-14 Connor Weinhouse , Jameson Augustin

In wildfires, burning pieces of ember-firebrands-are carried downstream by wind. At the time of landing, these firebrands can start secondary fires far away from the main burning unit. This phenomenon is called spotting and the secondary…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-11-21 Mohammad Farazmand

Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-20 Woo Seong Jo , Hwang-Yong Kim , Beom Jun Kim

We study the dynamic effects of fires on county labor markets in the US using a novel geophysical measure of fire exposure based on satellite imagery. We find increased fire exposure causes lower employment growth in the short and medium…

General Economics · Economics 2023-08-08 Raphaelle G. Coulombe , Akhil Rao

This paper presents a novel approach in wildfire prediction through the integration of multisource spatiotemporal data, including satellite data, and the application of deep learning techniques. Specifically, we utilize an ensemble model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Ayoub Jadouli , Chaker El Amrani

This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-04-30 L. M. W Leggett , D. A. Ball

Forest fires have a profound impact on the atmospheric environment and air quality across the ecosystems. The recent west coast forest fire in the United States of America (USA) has broken all the past records and caused severe…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-27 Srikanta Sannigrahi , Qi Zhang , Francesco Pilla , Bidroha Basu , Arunima Sarkar Basu

Fire is an indissoluble component of ecosystems, however quantifying the effects of fire on vegetation is challenging task as fire lies outside the typical experimental design attributes. A recent simulation study showed that under…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-12-16 Aristides Moustakas

In the last decade, wildfires have become wider and more destructive. The climate change and the growth of urban areas may further increase the probability of incidence of large-scale fires. The risk of fire can be lowered with preventive…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2021-03-19 Marc Demange , Alessia Di Fonso , Gabriele Di Stefano , Pierpaolo Vittorini

We theoretically study long-term trends in the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and data from the city of Philadelphia, for which 126 years of daily temperature…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 S. Redner , Mark R. Petersen

Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…

Applications · Statistics 2015-10-21 Anthony J. Webster

There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…

The devastating effects of wildfires on the wildlife and their impact on human lives and properties are undeniable. This shows the importance of studying the spread of wildfire, predicting its behavior and presenting more reliable models…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-03-29 Hengameh R. Dehkordi