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Cross-validation is a widely-used technique to estimate prediction error, but its behavior is complex and not fully understood. Ideally, one would like to think that cross-validation estimates the prediction error for the model at hand, fit…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-12 Stephen Bates , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

Cross-validation is one of the most popular model selection methods in statistics and machine learning. Despite its wide applicability, traditional cross validation methods tend to select overfitting models, due to the ignorance of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-25 Jing Lei

Used to estimate the risk of an estimator or to perform model selection, cross-validation is a widespread strategy because of its simplicity and its apparent universality. Many results exist on the model selection performances of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-01 Sylvain Arlot , Alain Celisse

Cross-validation is frequently used for model selection in a variety of applications. However, it is difficult to apply cross-validation to mixed effects models (including nonlinear mixed effects models or NLME models) due to the fact that…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-24 Emily Colby , Eric Bair

Theoretical developments on cross validation (CV) have mainly focused on selecting one among a list of finite-dimensional models (e.g., subset or order selection in linear regression) or selecting a smoothing parameter (e.g., bandwidth for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Yuhong Yang

Cross-validation is a standard tool for obtaining a honest assessment of the performance of a prediction model. The commonly used version repeatedly splits data, trains the prediction model on the training set, evaluates the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-10 Tianyu Pan , Vincent Z. Yu , Viswanath Devanarayan , Lu Tian

Cross-validation is a widely used technique for evaluating the performance of prediction models, ranging from simple binary classification to complex precision medicine strategies. It helps correct for optimism bias in error estimates,…

Cross-validation is the standard approach for tuning parameter selection in many non-parametric regression problems. However its use is less common in change-point regression, perhaps as its prediction error-based criterion may appear to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Florian Pein , Rajen D. Shah

Cross-validation (CV) is a popular method for model-selection. Unfortunately, it is not immediately obvious how to apply CV to unsupervised or exploratory contexts. This thesis discusses some extensions of cross-validation to unsupervised…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-17 Patrick O. Perry

A popular data-driven method for choosing the bandwidth in standard kernel regression is cross-validation. Even when there are outliers in the data, robust kernel regression can be used to estimate the unknown regression curve [Robust and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Denis Heng-Yan Leung

This text is a survey on cross-validation. We define all classical cross-validation procedures, and we study their properties for two different goals: estimating the risk of a given estimator, and selecting the best estimator among a given…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-10 Sylvain Arlot

Cross validation is a central tool in evaluating the performance of machine learning and statistical models. However, despite its ubiquitous role, its theoretical properties are still not well understood. We study the asymptotic properties…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-30 Morgane Austern , Wenda Zhou

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Amit Moscovich , Saharon Rosset

We study estimator selection and hyper-parameter tuning in off-policy evaluation. Although cross-validation is the most popular method for model selection in supervised learning, off-policy evaluation relies mostly on theory, which provides…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Matej Cief , Branislav Kveton , Michal Kompan

Cross-validation (CV) is a popular approach for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, when the number of folds is large, CV suffers from a need to repeatedly refit a learning procedure on a large number of training datasets.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-12 Ashia Wilson , Maximilian Kasy , Lester Mackey

Pre-validation is a way to build prediction model with two datasets of significantly different feature dimensions. Previous work showed that the asymptotic distribution of the resulting test statistic for the pre-validated predictor…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Jing Shang , Sourav Chatterjee , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

Cross-validation assesses the predictive ability of a model, allowing one to rank models accordingly. Although the nonparametric bootstrap is almost always used to assess the variability of a parameter, it can be used as the basis for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-30 James Stephens Cavenaugh

Cross-validation (CV) is a common method to tune machine learning methods and can be used for model selection in regression as well. Because of the structured nature of small, traditional experimental designs, the literature has warned…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-18 Maria L. Weese , Byran J. Smucker , David J. Edwards

With the increasing size of today's data sets, finding the right parameter configuration in model selection via cross-validation can be an extremely time-consuming task. In this paper we propose an improved cross-validation procedure which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-02-05 Tammo Krueger , Danny Panknin , Mikio Braun

As the main workhorse for model selection, Cross Validation (CV) has achieved an empirical success due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. However, despite its ubiquitous role, CV often falls into the following notorious dilemmas. On the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Weikai Li , Chuanxing Geng , Songcan Chen
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