Related papers: Doomsday: Two Flaws
It is often claimed that the fundamental laws of physics are deterministic and time-symmetric and that therefore our experience of the passage of time is an illusion. This paper will critically discuss these claims and show that they are…
The primary objective of this paper is to revisit and make a case for the merits of R.A. Fisher's objections to the decision-theoretic framing of frequentist inference. It is argued that this framing is congruent with the Bayesian but…
The survival probability of a quantum system with a finite ground energy is known to decay subexponentially at large times. Here we show that, under the same assumption, the average value of any quantum observable, whenever well-defined,…
Bayesian inference paradigms are regarded as powerful tools for solution of inverse problems. However, when applied to inverse problems in physical sciences, Bayesian formulations suffer from a number of inconsistencies that are often…
The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…
By analyzing the relationships among chance, weight of evidence and degree of beliefwe show that the assertion "probability functions are special cases of belief functions" and the assertion "Dempster's rule can be used to combine belief…
In [12], Nilsson proposed the probabilistic logic in which the truth values of logical propositions are probability values between 0 and 1. It is applicable to any logical system for which the consistency of a finite set of propositions can…
Three recent arguments seek to show that the universal applicability of unitary quantum theory is inconsistent with the assumption that a well-conducted measurement always has a definite physical outcome. In this paper I restate and analyze…
In the propositional modal (and algebraic) treatment of two-variable first-order logic equality is modelled by a `diagonal' constant, interpreted in square products of universal frames as the identity (also known as the `diagonal')…
The (re)introduction of $\Lambda$ into cosmology has spurred debates that touch on central questions in philosophy of science, as well as the foundations of general relativity and particle physics. We provide a systematic assessment of the…
In this letter, we point to three widely accepted challenges that the quantum theory, quantum information, and quantum foundations communities are currently facing: indeterminism, the semantics of conditional probabilities, and the spooky…
In his constructive and well-informed commentary, Andrei Khrennikov acknowledges a privileged status of classical probability theory with respect to statistical analysis. He also sees advantages offered by the Contextuality-by-Default…
The primary objective of this paper is to revisit Simpson's paradox using a statistical misspecification perspective. It is argued that the reversal of statistical associations is sometimes spurious, stemming from invalid probabilistic…
Dantzig and Eaves claimed that fundamental duality theorems of linear programming were a trivial consequence of Fourier elimination. Another property of Fourier elimination is considered here, regarding the existence of implicit equalities…
The likelihood principle makes strong claims about the nature of statistical evidence but is controversial. Its claims are undermined by the existence of several examples that are assumed to show that it allows, with unity probability,…
A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…
Shafer's theory of belief and the Bayesian theory of probability are two alternative and mutually inconsistent approaches toward modelling uncertainty in artificial intelligence. To help reduce the conflict between these two approaches,…
Non-compact symmetries cannot be fully broken by randomness since non-compact groups have no invariant probability distributions. In particular, this makes trickier the "Copernican" random choice of the place of the observer in infinite…
A crucial input into causal inference is the imputed counterfactual outcome. Imputation error can arise because of sampling uncertainty from estimating the prediction model using the untreated observations, or from out-of-sample information…
Jakob Bernoulli, working in the late 17th century, identified a gap in contemporary probability theory. He cautioned that it was inadequate to specify force of proof (probability of provability) for some kinds of uncertain arguments. After…