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The efficient resolution of Bayesian inverse problems remains challenging due to the high computational cost of traditional sampling methods. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Daniil Sherki , Ivan Oseledets , Ekaterina Muravleva

One of the fundamental problems in Bayesian statistics is the approximation of the posterior distribution. Gibbs sampler and coordinate ascent variational inference are renownedly utilized approximation techniques that rely on stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Se Yoon Lee

The classical Method of Successive Approximations (MSA) is an iterative method for solving stochastic control problems and is derived from Pontryagin's optimality principle. It is known that the MSA may fail to converge. Using careful…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-18 Bekzhan Kerimkulov , David Šiška , Łukasz Szpruch

A nonparametric Bayes approach is proposed for the problem of estimating a sparse sequence based on Gaussian random variables. We adopt the popular two-group prior with one component being a point mass at zero, and the other component being…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-31 Yunbo Ouyang , Feng Liang

Inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs) are widely used in science and engineering. Although such problems are generally ill-posed, different regularisation approaches have been developed to ameliorate this problem.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-23 Jan Povala , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Eky Febrianto , Fehmi Cirak , Mark Girolami

We perform differential expression analysis of high-throughput sequencing count data under a Bayesian nonparametric framework, removing sophisticated ad-hoc pre-processing steps commonly required in existing algorithms. We propose to use…

Applications · Statistics 2017-05-04 Siamak Zamani Dadaneh , Xiaoning Qian , Mingyuan Zhou

Solving ill-posed inverse problems by Bayesian inference has recently attracted considerable attention. Compared to deterministic approaches, the probabilistic representation of the solution by the posterior distribution can be exploited to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-11-03 Felix Lucka

Bayesian optimisation is a sample efficient method for finding a global optimum of expensive black-box objective functions. Historic datasets from related problems can be exploited to help improve performance of Bayesian optimisation by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Natasha Trinkle , Huong Ha , Jeffrey Chan

Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Tim Rensmeyer , Oliver Niggemann

In this paper we develop a general framework for constructing and analysing coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers, allowing for both (possibly degenerate) diffusion and piecewise deterministic Markov processes. For many performance…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-29 N. Nuesken , G. A. Pavliotis

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

We propose sequential transport (ST), a distributional framework for mediation analysis that combines optimal transport (OT) with a mediator directed acyclic graph (DAG). Instead of relying on cross-world counterfactual assumptions, ST…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Agathe Fernandes Machado , Iryna Voitsitska , Arthur Charpentier , Ewen Gallic

Many inference problems involve inferring the number $N$ of components in some region, along with their properties $\{\mathbf{x}_i\}_{i=1}^N$, from a dataset $\mathcal{D}$. A common statistical example is finite mixture modelling. In the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-01-15 Brendon J. Brewer

Diffusion models enable the synthesis of highly accurate samples from complex distributions and have become foundational in generative modeling. Recently, they have demonstrated significant potential for solving Bayesian inverse problems by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Yazid Janati , Alain Durmus , Jimmy Olsson , Eric Moulines

Controlling complex physics systems is important in diverse domains. While diffusion-based methods have demonstrated advantages over classical model-based approaches and myopic sequential learning methods in achieving global trajectory…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-03 Hongyi Chen , Jingtao Ding , Jianhai Shu , Xinchun Yu , Xiaojun Liang , Yong Li , Xiao-Ping Zhang

We revisit the Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) modelling framework for discrete time series, which was recently found to be very effective in numerous tasks including model selection, estimation and prediction. A novel representation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-21 Ioannis Papageorgiou , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

In this work, we investigate the use of Besov priors in the context of Bayesian inverse problems. The solution to Bayesian inverse problems is the posterior distribution which naturally enables us to interpret the uncertainties. Besov…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Andreas Horst , Babak Maboudi Afkham , Yiqiu Dong , Jakob Lemvig

In the context of Bayesian inversion for scientific and engineering modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies are the benchmark due to their flexibility and robustness in dealing with arbitrary posterior probability density…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-07 Han Lu , Mohammad Khalil , Thomas Catanach , Jiefu Chen , Xuqing Wu , Xin Fu , Cosmin Safta , Yueqin Huang

The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-06 Dan Li , Adam Clements , Christopher Drovandi

We present a new approach to Bayesian inference that entirely avoids Markov chain simulation, by constructing a map that pushes forward the prior measure to the posterior measure. Existence and uniqueness of a suitable measure-preserving…

Computation · Statistics 2012-08-31 Tarek A. El Moselhy , Youssef M. Marzouk