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Current understanding holds that financial contagion is driven mainly by the system-wide interconnectedness of institutions. A distinction has been made between systematic and idiosyncratic channels of contagion, with shocks transmitted…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-04 Daniel Ahelegbey , Luis Carvalho , Eric Kolaczyk

The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-04-10 Daniele Petrone , Vito Latora

We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling complex systems: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-12-07 Giulio Cimini , Tiziano Squartini , Diego Garlaschelli , Andrea Gabrielli

Based on an empirical analysis of the network structure of the Austrian inter-bank market, we study the flow of funds through the banking network following exogenous shocks to the system. These shocks are implemented by stochastic changes…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-12-02 Michael Boss , Martin Summer , Stefan Thurner

Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-28 Marco Bardoscia , Stefano Battiston , Fabio Caccioli , Guido Caldarelli

The recent financial crisis has stressed the need to understand financial systems as networks of interdependent countries, where cross-border financial linkages play the fundamental role. It has also been emphasized that the relevance of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-03 Alessandro Spelta , Tanya Araújo

The study of systemic risk is often presented through the analysis of several measures referring to quantities used by practitioners and policy makers. Almost invariably, those measures evaluate the size of the impact that exogenous events…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-04-13 Luka Klinčić , Vinko Zlatić , Guido Caldarelli , Hrvoje Štefančić

The seniority of debt, which determines the order in which a bankrupt institution repays its debts, is an important and sometimes contentious feature of financial crises, yet its impact on system-wide stability is not well understood. We…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-25 Charles D. Brummitt , Teruyoshi Kobayashi

We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-09-07 Fabio Caccioli , Thomas A. Catanach , J. Doyne Farmer

We introduce a heterogeneous formulation of a contagious McKean-Vlasov system, whose inherent heterogeneity comes from asymmetric interactions with a natural and highly tractable structure. It is shown that this formulation characterises…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-28 Zachary Feinstein , Andreas Sojmark

When banks extend loans to each other, they generate a negative externality in the form of systemic risk. They create a network of interbank exposures by which they expose other banks to potential insolvency cascades. In this paper, we show…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-26 Matt V. Leduc , Stefan Thurner

This paper provides a general framework for modeling financial contagion in a system with obligations in multiple illiquid assets (e.g., currencies). In so doing, we develop a multi-layered financial network that extends the single network…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-24 Zachary Feinstein

Banks in the interbank network can not assess the true risks associated with lending to other banks in the network, unless they have full information on the riskiness of all the other banks. These risks can be estimated by using network…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-28 Stefan Thurner , Sebastian Poledna

The rapid advancement of technology underscores the critical importance of robustness in complex network systems. This paper presents a framework for investigating the structural robustness of interconnected network models. This paper…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-11-01 Dong Gaogao , Sun Nannan , Wang Fan

The role of Network Theory in the study of the financial crisis has been widely spotted in the latest years. It has been shown how the network topology and the dynamics running on top of it can trigger the outbreak of large systemic crisis.…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-09 Andrea Flori , Giuseppe Pappalardo , Michelangelo Puliga , Alessandro Chessa , Fabio Pammolli

Many man-made networks support each other to provide efficient services and resources to the customers, despite that this support produces a strong interdependency between the individual networks. Thus an initial failure of a fraction $1-p$…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-02-11 L. D. Valdez , P. A. Macri , L. A. Braunstein

Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-05-14 Hadi Daneshmand , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez , Le Song , Bernhard Schoelkopf

We propose a dynamic model of dependence structure between financial institutions within a financial system and we construct measures for dependence and financial instability. Employing Markov structures of joint credit migrations, our…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-09-11 Yu-Sin Chang

In this paper, we assess how the stability of financial networks is affected by interconnectedness considering its tiniest variation: the edge. We compute the impact of edges as the percentage difference in the systemic risk (SR) of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-10-06 Michel Alexandre , Thiago Christiano Silva , Francisco A. Rodrigues

Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-24 Matteo Serri , Guido Caldarelli , Giulio Cimini