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We introduce an alternative closed form lower bound on the Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) likelihood based on the R\'enyi $\alpha$-divergence. This new lower bound can be viewed as a convex combination of the Nystr\"om approximation and…

We consider a real-valued diffusion process with a linear jump term driven by a Poisson point process and we assume that the jump amplitudes have a centered density with finite moments. We show upper and lower estimates for the density of…

While useful probability bounds for $n$ pairwise independent Bernoulli random variables adding up to at least an integer $k$ have been proposed in the literature, none of these bounds are tight in general. In this paper, we provide several…

A local convergence rate is established for a Gauss orthogonal collocation method applied to optimal control problems with control constraints. If the Hamiltonian possesses a strong convexity property, then the theory yields convergence for…

The proximal gradient algorithm for minimizing the sum of a smooth and a nonsmooth convex function often converges linearly even without strong convexity. One common reason is that a multiple of the step length at each iteration may…

Given a simple transient random walk $(S_n)_{n\geq 0}$ in $\mathbf{Z}$ and a stationary sequence of real random variables $(\xi(s))_{s\in \mathbf{Z}}$, we investigate the extremes of the sequence $(\xi(S_n))_{n\geq 0}$. Under suitable…

Gaussian correlation conjecture states that the Gaussian measure of the intersection of two symmetric convex sets is greater or equal to the product of the measures.

We use Stein's method to obtain bounds on the rate of convergence for a class of statistics in geometric probability obtained as a sum of contributions from Poisson points which are exponentially stabilizing, i.e. locally determined in a…

We develop techniques for determining the exact asymptotic speed of convergence in the multidimensional normal approximation of smooth functions of Gaussian fields. As a by-product, our findings yield exact limits and often give rise to…

We consider versions of the FIND algorithm where the pivot element used is the median of a subset chosen uniformly at random from the data. For the median selection we assume that subsamples of size asymptotic to $c \cdot n^\alpha$ are…

We consider the problem of calculating learning curves (i.e., average generalization performance) of Gaussian processes used for regression. On the basis of a simple expression for the generalization error, in terms of the eigenvalue…

Composite likelihood usually ignores dependencies among response components, while variational approximation to likelihood ignores dependencies among parameter components. We derive a Gaussian variational approximation to the composite…

We present a self-contained proof of a uniform bound on multi-point correlations of trigonometric functions of a class of Gaussian random fields. It corresponds to a special case of the general situation considered in [Hairer-Xu], but with…

We study the performance of nonparametric Bayes procedures for one-dimensional diffusions with periodic drift. We improve existing convergence rate results for Gaussian process (GP) priors with fixed hyper parameters. Moreover, we exhibit…

Vecchia's approximate likelihood for Gaussian process parameters depends on how the observations are ordered, which can be viewed as a deficiency because the exact likelihood is permutation-invariant. This article takes the alternative…

We establish the rate of convergence of distributions of sums of independent identically distributed random variables to the Gaussian distribution in terms of truncated pseudomoments by implementing the idea of Yu. Studnyev for getting…

We construct flexible likelihoods for multi-output Gaussian process models that leverage neural networks as components. We make use of sparse variational inference methods to enable scalable approximate inference for the resulting class of…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To…

For Gaussian random fields with values in $\mathbb{R}^d$, sharp upper and lower bounds on the probability of hitting a fixed set have been available for many years. These apply in particular to the solutions of systems of linear SPDEs. For…

Expectation Propagation is a very popular algorithm for variational inference, but comes with few theoretical guarantees. In this article, we prove that the approximation errors made by EP can be bounded. Our bounds have an asymptotic…