Related papers: Evaluating and Boosting Uncertainty Quantification…
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs…
While standard approaches to optimisation focus on producing a single high-performing solution, Quality-Diversity (QD) algorithms allow large diverse collections of such solutions to be found. If QD has proven promising across a large…
Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift,…
We consider two approaches for assessing the reliability of the individual predictions of a classifier: Robustness Quantification (RQ) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). We explain the conceptual differences between the two approaches,…
We have recently proposed a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which UQ objectives and assumption/information set are brought into the forefront, providing a framework for the communication and comparison of UQ…
There are essentially three kinds of approaches to Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (A) robust optimization, (B) Bayesian, (C) decision theory. Although (A) is robust, it is unfavorable with respect to accuracy and data assimilation. (B)…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has increasing importance in building robust high-performance and generalizable materials property prediction models. It can also be used in active learning to train better models by focusing on getting new…
Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are promising surrogates for quantum mechanics evaluations in ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations due to their ability to reproduce the energy and force landscape within chemical accuracy…
This work demonstrates the ability to produce readily interpretable statistical metrics for model fit, fixed effects covariance coefficients, and prediction confidence. Importantly, this work compares 4 suitable and commonly applied…
Ice sheet simulations suffer from vast parametric uncertainties, such as the basal sliding boundary condition or geothermal heat flux. Quantifying the resulting uncertainties in predictions is of utmost importance to support judicious…
This paper provides a tutorial about uncertainty quantification (UQ) for those who have no background but are interested in learning more in this area. It exploits many very simple examples, which are understandable to undergraduates, to…
In nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis, the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology requires that computer model output uncertainties must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques are frequently used to ascertain output variability in systems with parametric uncertainty. Traditional algorithms for UQ are either system-agnostic and slow (such as Monte Carlo) or fast with…
Traditional deep learning (DL) models are powerful classifiers, but many approaches do not provide uncertainties for their estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DL models have received increased attention in the literature…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly assisting users in the real world, yet their reliability remains a concern. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has been heralded as a tool to enhance human-LLM collaboration by enabling users to…
Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a…
The role of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning has become crucial with growing use of predictive models in high-risk applications. Though a large class of methods exists for measuring deep uncertainties, in practice, the…
Single-pass uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for classification represent uncertainty by predicting a tractable distribution over the class probability vector. While existing approaches primarily focus on enhancing the expressiveness…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in computational fluid dynamics to assess the reliability and robustness of simulations, given the uncertainties in input parameters. OpenLB is an open-source lattice Boltzmann method library…
Despite the popularity of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CNN has been largely overlooked. Lack of efficient UQ tools severely limits the application of CNN in certain areas, such as…