Related papers: An Economic Topology of the Brexit vote
In this paper we present a social network and forensic analysis of the vote counts of Spanish national elections that took place in December 2015 and their sequel in June 2016. Vote counts are extracted at the level of municipalities,…
This paper aims at solving FX market volatility modeling problem and finding the most becoming approach to this task. Validity of two competing approaches, classical econometric generalized conditional heteroscedasticity and mathematical…
This paper offers a strategic rationale for zero-sum thinking in elections. We show that asymmetric information and distributional considerations together make voters wary of policies supported by others. This force impels a majority of…
We study a generalization of the voter model on complex networks, focusing on the scaling of mean exit time. Previous work has defined the voter model in terms of an initially chosen node and a randomly chosen neighbor, which makes it…
The present work analyses a particular scenario of consensus formation, where the individuals navigate across an underlying network defining the topology of the walks. The consensus, associated to a given opinion coded as a simple messages,…
International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods available to estimate its true impact upon sub-national areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and…
This paper proposes a two blocks and three regions economic geography model that can account for the most salient stylized facts experienced by Eastern European transition economies during the period 1990 2005. In contrast to the existing…
The topological organization of several world cities are studied according to respective representations by complex networks. As a first step, the city maps are processed by a recently developed methodology that allows the most significant…
The Gapminder project set out to use statistics to dispel simplistic notions about global development. In the same spirit, we use persistent homology, a technique from computational algebraic topology, to explore the relationship between…
Predicting the exit (e.g. bankrupt, acquisition, etc.) of privately held companies is a current and relevant problem for investment firms. The difficulty of the problem stems from the lack of reliable, quantitative and publicly available…
The rise of digital platforms has transformed political campaigning, introducing complex regulatory challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive taxonomy for analyzing political content in the EU's digital electoral landscape, aligning…
This paper explains why, despite a marked increase in available political information on cable television and the Internet, citizens' levels of political knowledge have, at best, remained stagnant (Delli Carpini & Keeter, 1996). Since the…
Elections play a fundamental role in democratic societies, however they are often characterized by unexpected results. Here we discuss an election campaign model inspired by the compartmental epidemiology, and we show that the model…
Democracies are built upon secure and reliable voting systems. Electronic voting systems seek to replace ballot papers and boxes with computer hardware and software. Proposed electronic election schemes have been subjected to scrutiny, with…
We propose a general framework for strategic voting when a voter may lack knowledge about other votes or about other voters' knowledge about her own vote. In this setting we define notions of manipulation and equilibrium. We also model…
The aim of the present article is to offer a strictly mathematical, statistical treatment of the current account balances in EU and in the Eurozone. Based on Eurostat data, an overview of the total and annual balances is first made for…
An important goal of empirical demand analysis is choice and welfare prediction on counterfactual budget sets arising from potential policy-interventions. Such predictions are more credible when made without arbitrary…
We use the theory of persistent homology to analyze a data set arising from the study of various aspects of democracy. Our results show that most "mature" democracies look more or less the same, in the sense that they form a single…
Predicting the winner of an election is a favorite problem both for news media pundits and computational social choice theorists. Since it is often infeasible to elicit the preferences of all the voters in a typical prediction scenario, a…
Computational modelling of political discourse tasks has become an increasingly important area of research in natural language processing. Populist rhetoric has risen across the political sphere in recent years; however, computational…