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The upper tail problem in a random graph asks to estimate the probability that the number of copies of some fixed subgraph in an Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi random graph exceeds its expectation by some constant factor. There has been much exciting…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Yang P. Liu , Yufei Zhao

What is the probability that a sparse $n$-vertex random $d$-regular graph $G_n^d$, $n^{1-c}<d=o(n)$ contains many more copies of a fixed graph $K$ than expected? We determine the behavior of this upper tail to within a logarithmic gap in…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2021-05-20 Benjamin Gunby

The upper tail problem in a sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph asks for the probability that the number of copies of some fixed subgraph exceeds its expected value by a constant factor. We study the analogous problem for oriented subgraphs in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-06 Jiyun Park

The "infamous upper tail problem" for $r$-uniform hypergraphs is to estimate the probability that the number of copies of a fixed hypergraph $H$ in a large binomial $r$-uniform hypergraph $\boldsymbol{G}$ exceeds its expectation by a…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Nicholas A. Cook , Nguyen Nguyen

We consider the upper tail large deviations of subgraph counts for irregular graphs $\mathrm{H}$ in $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$, the sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph on $n$ vertices with edge connectivity probability $p \in (0,1)$. For $n^{-1/\Delta}…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-10 Anirban Basak , Shaibal Karmakar

The upper tail problem in the Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi random graph $G\sim\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$ asks to estimate the probability that the number of copies of a graph $H$ in $G$ exceeds its expectation by a factor $1+\delta$. Chatterjee and Dembo…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-11-12 Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Shirshendu Ganguly , Eyal Lubetzky , Yufei Zhao

We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-04-12 Yufei Zhao

For a $\Delta$-regular connected graph ${\sf H}$ the problem of determining the upper tail large deviation for the number of copies of ${\sf H}$ in $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$, an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graph on $n$ vertices with edge probability $p$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-08 Anirban Basak , Riddhipratim Basu

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the joint upper and lower tail large deviations of the edge eigenvalues of an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$, in the regime of $p$ where the edge of the spectrum is no…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-02 Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Sohom Bhattacharya , Shirshendu Ganguly

For any fixed simple graph $H=(V,E)$ and any fixed $u>0$, we establish the leading order of the exponential rate function for the probability that the number of copies of $H$ in the Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi graph $G(n,p)$ exceeds its expectation…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-28 Nicholas A. Cook , Amir Dembo

The upper tail problem for the largest eigenvalue of the Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$ is to estimate the probability that the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$ exceeds its typical value…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Shirshendu Ganguly

Given a fixed graph H, what is the (exponentially small) probability that the number X_H of copies of H in the binomial random graph G_{n,p} is at least twice its mean? Studied intensively since the mid 1990s, this so-called infamous upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-09 Matas Šileikis , Lutz Warnke

We study the typical structure of a sparse Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi random graph conditioned on the lower tail subgraph count event. We show that in certain regimes, a typical graph sampled from the conditional distribution resembles the entropy…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-01-08 Byron Chin

We consider an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graph $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$ on $n$ vertices with edge probability $p$ such that \[ \sqrt{\frac{\log n}{\log \log n}} \ll np \le n^{1/2-o(1)}, \label{eq:abs} \tag{$\dagger$} \] and derive the upper tail large…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-08 Anirban Basak

General upper tail estimates are given for counting edges in a random induced subhypergraph of a fixed hypergraph H, with an easy proof by estimating the moments. As an application we consider the numbers of arithmetic progressions and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Svante Janson , Andrzej Rucinski

Let $X$ count the number of $r$-stars in the random binomial graph $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$. We determine, for fixed $r$ and $\varepsilon > 0$, the asymptotics of $\log \mathbb{P}(X \ge (1 + \varepsilon)\mathbb{E} X)$ assuming only $\mathbb{E} X…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Margarita Akhmejanova , Matas Šileikis

Building on the techniques from the breakthrough paper of Harel, Mousset and Samotij, which solved the upper tail problem for cliques, we compute the asymptotics of the upper tail for the number of induced copies of the 4-cycle in the…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2022-01-11 Asaf Cohen Antonir

We study the upper tail of the number of arithmetic progressions of a given length in a random subset of {1,...,n}, establishing exponential bounds which are best possible up to constant factors in the exponent. The proof also extends to…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Lutz Warnke

We provide large deviations estimates for the upper tail of the number of triangles in scale-free inhomogeneous random graphs where the degrees have power law tails with index $-\alpha, \alpha \in (1,2)$. We show that upper tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-25 Clara Stegehuis , Bert Zwart

Let $N$ be the number of triangles in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$ on $n$ vertices with edge density $p=d/n,$ where $d>0$ is a fixed constant. It is well known that $N$ weakly converges to the Poisson distribution with mean…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-15 Shirshendu Ganguly , Ella Hiesmayr , Kyeongsik Nam
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