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A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Martin Bladt , Jorge González Cázares

In this paper, we investigate a continuous time version of the Stochastic Langevin Monte Carlo method, introduced in [WT11], that incorporates a stochastic sampling step inside the traditional over-damped Langevin diffusion. This method is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-10 Marelys Crespo Navas , Sébastien Gadat , Xavier Gendre

We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-09-23 Yang Xing

Overdamped Langevin dynamics are reversible stochastic differential equations which are commonly used to sample probability measures in high-dimensional spaces, such as the ones appearing in computational statistical physics and Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Tony Lelièvre , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Geneviève Robin , Régis Santet , Gabriel Stoltz

The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Edwin Fong , Andrew Yiu

We consider the problem of scalable sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian generalized linear mixed models on large datasets. Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics, coupled with smooth re-parameterizations of variance parameters, produces…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Youngsoo Baek , Samuel I. Berchuck

We derive the posterior contraction rate for non-parametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of a Poisson point process.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-17 Shota Gugushvili , Peter Spreij

We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-22 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

In order to solve tasks like uncertainty quantification or hypothesis tests in Bayesian imaging inverse problems, we often have to draw samples from the arising posterior distribution. For the usually log-concave but high-dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-23 Matthias J. Ehrhardt , Lorenz Kuger , Carola-Bibiane Schönlieb

A general method is proposed which allows one to estimate drift and diffusion coefficients of a stochastic process governed by a Langevin equation. It extends a previously devised approach [R. Friedrich et al., Physics Letters A 271, 217…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-11 D. Kleinhans , R. Friedrich , A. Nawroth , J. Peinke

We study posterior contraction behaviors for parameters of interest in the context of Bayesian mixture modeling, where the number of mixing components is unknown while the model itself may or may not be correctly specified. Two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-17 Aritra Guha , Nhat Ho , XuanLong Nguyen

Suppose that a compound Poisson process is observed discretely in time and assume that its jump distribution is supported on the set of natural numbers. In this paper we propose a non-parametric Bayesian approach to estimate the intensity…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-21 Shota Gugushvili , Ester Mariucci , Frank van der Meulen

In previous work, we introduced a method for determining convergence rates for integration methods for the kinetic Langevin equation for $M$-$\nabla$Lipschitz $m$-log-concave densities [arXiv:2302.10684, 2023]. In this article, we exploit…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Benedict Leimkuhler , Daniel Paulin , Peter A. Whalley

We study posterior rates of contraction in Gaussian process regression with unbounded covariate domain. Our argument relies on developing a Gaussian approximation to the posterior of the leading coefficients of a Karhunen--Lo\'{e}ve…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-06 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

We continue the investigation of Bernstein-von Mises theorems for nonparametric Bayes procedures from [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 1999-2028]. We introduce multiscale spaces on which nonparametric priors and posteriors are naturally defined,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-03 Ismaël Castillo , Richard Nickl

We introduce stochastic models for continuous-time evolution of angles and develop their estimation. We focus on studying Langevin diffusions with stationary distributions equal to well-known distributions from directional statistics, since…

A key task in Bayesian machine learning is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). One prevalent example of this is sampling posteriors in parametric distributions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Rong Ge , Holden Lee , Andrej Risteski

In this paper, we study semiparametric inference for linear multivariate Hawkes processes, a class of point processes widely used to describe self and mutually exciting phenomena. We establish a convolution theorem giving the best limiting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-26 Mael Duverger , Judith Rousseau

The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-30 Elodie Vernet