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The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-30 Elodie Vernet

Computer simulations generate trajectories at a single, well-defined thermodynamic state point. Statistical reweighting offers the means to reweight static and dynamical properties to different equilibrium state points by means of analytic…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-12-25 Marius Bause , Timon Wittenstein , Kurt Kremer , Tristan Bereau

We investigate a L\'evy-Walk alternating between velocities $\pm v_0$ with opposite sign. The sojourn time probability distribution at large times is a power law lacking its mean or second moment. The first case corresponds to a ballistic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-06-03 D. Froemberg , E. Barkai

We show the equivalence of three properties for an infinitely divisible distribution: the subexponentiality of the density, the subexponentiality of the density of its L\'evy measure and the tail equivalence between the density and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-16 Muneya Matsui

Many applications in medical statistics as well as in other fields can be described by transitions between multiple states (e.g. from health to disease) experienced by individuals over time. In this context, multi-state models are a popular…

The mean time taken by an irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space to hit a target chosen at random according to the stationary distribution does not depend on the initial state of the chain. This mean time is known as Kemeny's…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-13 P. J. Fitzsimmons

Continuous-time random walks combining diffusive scattering and ballistic propagation on lattices model a class of L\'evy walks. The assumption that transitions in the scattering phase occur with exponentially-distributed waiting times…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-11 Giampaolo Cristadoro , Thomas Gilbert , Marco Lenci , David P. Sanders

We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 Walter Dempsey

We propose a rumor propagation model in which individuals within a homogeneously mixed population can assume one of infinitely many possible states. To analyze this model, we extend the classical law of large numbers for density-dependent…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Cristian F. Coletti , Denis A. Luiz , Alejandra Rada

Motivated by applications to mathematical biology, we study the averaging problem for slow-fast systems, {\em in the case in which the fast dynamics is a stochastic process with multiple invariant measures}. We consider both the case in…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-17 B. D. Goddard , M. Ottobre , K. J. Painter , I. Souttar

We study K-processes, which are Markov processes in a denumerable state space, all of whose elements are stable, with the exception of a single state, starting from which the process enters finite sets of stable states with uniform…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-08-27 L. R. G. Fontes , P. Mathieu

A new sufficient condition is proved for the existence of stochastic semigroups generated by the sum of two unbounded operators. It is applied to one-dimensional piecewise deterministic Markov processes, where we also discuss the existence…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2009-07-07 Michael C. Mackey , Marta Tyran-Kaminska

Recently, an Enskog-type kinetic theory for Vicsek-type models for self-propelled particles has been proposed [T. Ihle, Phys. Rev. E 83, 030901 (2011)]. This theory is based on an exact equation for a Markov chain in phase space and is not…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-07-22 Thomas Ihle

Random dynamical systems with countably many maps which admit countable Markov partitions on complete metric spaces such that the resulting Markov systems are uniformly continuous and contractive are considered. A non-degeneracy and a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-11-18 Ivan Werner

A phase-type distribution is the distribution of the time until absorption in a finite state-space time-homogeneous Markov jump process, with one absorbing state and the rest being transient. These distributions are mathematically tractable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-08 Martin Bladt , Jorge Yslas

Filyokov and Karpov [Inzhenerno-Fizicheskii Zhurnal 13, 624 (1967)] have proposed a theory of non-equilibrium steady states in direct analogy with the theory of equilibrium states : the principle is to maximize the Shannon entropy…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-03-07 Cecile Monthus

There is a well-established theory linking certain semi-Markov chains and continuous-time random walks to time-fractional equations and anomalous diffusion. In this work, we go beyond the semi-Markov framework by considering some…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Lorenzo Facciaroni , Costantino Ricciuti , Enrico Scalas

We study the long-term qualitative behavior of randomly perturbed dynamical systems. More specifically, we look at limit cycles of stochastic differential equations (SDE) with Markovian switching, in which the process switches at random…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-10 Nguyen H. Du , Alexandru Hening , Dang H. Nguyen , George Yin

Random metastability occurs when an externally forced or noisy system possesses more than one state of apparent equilibrium. This work investigates a class of random dynamical systems, arising from perturbing a one-dimensional piecewise…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-10-27 Cecilia González-Tokman , Joshua Peters

A dynamical model based on a continuous addition of colored shot noises is presented. The resulting process is colored and non-Gaussian. A general expression for the characteristic function of the process is obtained, which, after a scaling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Jaume Masoliver , Miquel Montero , Alan McKane