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We consider the problem of predicting perturbation effects via causal models. In many applications, it is a priori unknown which mechanisms of a system are modified by an external perturbation, even though the features of the perturbation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Nora Schneider , Lars Lorch , Niki Kilbertus , Bernhard Schölkopf , Andreas Krause

This paper is a preliminary work to address the problem of dynamical systems with parameters varying in time. An idea to predict their behaviour is proposed. These systems are called \emph{transient systems}, and are distinguished from…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-11-04 Ugo Galvanetto , Luca Magri

The spread of infectious disease in a human community or the proliferation of fake news on social media can be modeled as a randomly growing tree-shaped graph. The history of the random growth process is often unobserved but contains…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-15 Harry Crane , Min Xu

We address counterfactual analysis in empirical models of games with partially identified parameters, and multiple equilibria and/or randomized strategies, by constructing and analyzing the counterfactual predictive distribution set (CPDS).…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-17 Brendan Kline , Elie Tamer

Infiltration of diffusing particles from one material to another where the diffusion mechanism is either normal or anomalous is a widely observed phenomena. When the diffusion is anomalous we find interesting behaviors: diffusion may lead…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-05-04 Nickolay Korabel , Eli Barkai

Regression models for supervised learning problems with a continuous target are commonly understood as models for the conditional mean of the target given predictors. This notion is simple and therefore appealing for interpretation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-09 Torsten Hothorn , Achim Zeileis

The study of continuous-time information diffusion has been an important area of research for many applications in recent years. When only the diffusion traces (cascades) are accessible, cascade-based network inference and influence…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Keke Huang , Ruize Gao , Bogdan Cautis , Xiaokui Xiao

Many existing approaches for estimating parameters in settings with distributional shifts operate under an invariance assumption. For example, under covariate shift, it is assumed that $p(y|x)$ remains invariant. We refer to such…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Yujin Jeong , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Recent interest in the external validity of prediction models (i.e., the problem of different train and test distributions, known as dataset shift) has produced many methods for finding predictive distributions that are invariant to dataset…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-20 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Bryant Chen , Suchi Saria

We consider an inverse problem in information diffusion modeled by random walks on combinatorial graphs. The problem concerns reconstruction of vertex centrality from the distribution of the first passage times observed on a subset of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Yixian Gao , Songshuo Li , Yang Yang

A significant obstacle in the development of robust machine learning models is covariate shift, a form of distribution shift that occurs when the input distributions of the training and test sets differ while the conditional label…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-17 Nilesh Tripuraneni , Ben Adlam , Jeffrey Pennington

Among recent developments in time series forecasting methods, deep forecasting models have gained popularity as they can utilize hidden feature patterns in time series to improve forecasting performance. Nevertheless, the majority of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Zhendong Wang , Ioanna Miliou , Isak Samsten , Panagiotis Papapetrou

This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and…

The inverse statistical problem of finding direct interactions in complex networks is difficult. In the natural sciences, well-controlled perturbation experiments are widely used to probe the structure of complex networks. However, our…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-10-24 Jialong Jiang , David A. Sivak , Matt Thomson

We review and conceptualize recent advances in causal inference under network interference, drawing on a complex and diverse body of work that ranges from causal inference, statistical network analysis, economics, the health sciences, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Subhankar Bhadra , Michael Schweinberger

Inverse problems involve making inference about unknown parameters of a physical process using observational data. This paper investigates an important class of inverse problems -- the estimation of the initial condition of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-09 Xiao Liu , Kyongmin Yeo

We study causal inference in a multi-environment setting, in which the functional relations for producing the variables from their direct causes remain the same across environments, while the distribution of exogenous noises may vary. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-29 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang

We study the connections between network structure, opinion dynamics, and an adversary's power to artificially induce disagreements. We approach these questions by extending models of opinion formation in the social sciences to represent…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Jason Gaitonde , Jon Kleinberg , Eva Tardos

We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where the data distribution may shift between training and test time, and additional information about it may be available at test time. This relates to popular scenarios such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-06-05 Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing , Jonas Peters , Kun Zhang

We study online linear regression problems in a distributed setting, where the data is spread over a network. In each round, each network node proposes a linear predictor, with the objective of fitting the \emph{network-wide} data. It then…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-14 Deming Yuan , Alexandre Proutiere , Guodong Shi