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Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Natraj Raman , Daniele Magazzeni , Sameena Shah

We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Kwangho Kim

Consider a setting with multiple units (e.g., individuals, cohorts, geographic locations) and outcomes (e.g., treatments, times, items), where the goal is to learn a multivariate distribution for each unit-outcome entry, such as the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-21 Kyuseong Choi , Jacob Feitelberg , Caleb Chin , Anish Agarwal , Raaz Dwivedi

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

To study gap acceptance behaviour one needs the distribution (or probability density function) of gaps in the opposing stream. Further, in these times of widespread availability of large computing powers, traffic simulation has emerged as a…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-10 Ankita Sharma , Partha Chakroborty , Pranamesh Chakraborty

In social networks, information and influence diffuse among users as cascades. While the importance of studying cascades has been recognized in various applications, it is difficult to observe the complete structure of cascades in practice.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-10-15 Bo Zong , Yinghui Wu , Ambuj K. Singh , Xifeng Yan

To infer a diffusion network based on observations from historical diffusion processes, existing approaches assume that observation data contain exact occurrence time of each node infection, or at least the eventual infection statuses of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Hao Huang , Qian Yan , Keqi Han , Ting Gan , Jiawei Jiang , Quanqing Xu , Chuanhui Yan

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Ngoc Bui , Duy Nguyen , Viet Anh Nguyen

To make informed decisions in natural environments that change over time, humans must update their beliefs as new observations are gathered. Studies exploring human inference as a dynamical process that unfolds in time have focused on…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-03 Arthur Prat-Carrabin , Robert C. Wilson , Jonathan D. Cohen , Rava Azeredo da Silveira

Causal inference in brain networks has traditionally relied on regression-based models such as Granger causality, structural equation modeling, and dynamic causal modeling. While effective for identifying directed associations, these…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-01 Moo K. Chung , Luigi Maccotta , Aaron Struck

In causal inference, an important problem is to quantify the effects of interventions or treatments. Many studies focus on estimating the mean causal effects; however, these estimands may offer limited insight since two distributions can…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Archer Gong Zhang , Nancy Reid , Qiang Sun

Dynamical behaviors of complex interacting systems, including brain activities, financial price movements, and physical collective phenomena, are associated with underlying interactions between the system's components. The issue of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Shuhan Zheng , Ziqiang Li , Kantaro Fujiwara , Gouhei Tanaka

We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Ahmed M. Alaa , Michael Weisz , Mihaela van der Schaar

Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the spontaneous generation of self-organized patterns, hypothesised to play a role in the formation of many of the magnificent patterns observed in Nature. In several cases of interest, the…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2025-10-22 Riccardo Muolo , Malbor Asllani , Duccio Fanelli , Philip K. Maini , Timoteo Carletti

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Time plays an essential role in the diffusion of information, influence and disease over networks. In many cases we only observe when a node copies information, makes a decision or becomes infected -- but the connectivity, transmission…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2011-05-05 Manuel Gomez Rodriguez , David Balduzzi , Bernhard Schölkopf

The problem of statistical inference in its various forms has been the subject of decades-long extensive research. Most of the effort has been focused on characterizing the behavior as a function of the number of available samples, with far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Tomer Berg , Or Ordentlich , Ofer Shayevitz

In this paper, we consider the problem of distributed inference in tree based networks. In the framework considered in this paper, distributed nodes make a 1-bit local decision regarding a phenomenon before sending it to the fusion center…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Bhavya Kailkhura , Aditya Vempaty , Pramod K. Varshney

We study the problem of learning fair prediction models for unseen test sets distributed differently from the train set. Stability against changes in data distribution is an important mandate for responsible deployment of models. The domain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Harvineet Singh , Rina Singh , Vishwali Mhasawade , Rumi Chunara

We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Pedro Sanchez , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris