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The SIR model is a classical model characterizing the spreading of infectious diseases. This model describes the time-dependent quantity changes among Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered groups. By introducing space-depend effects such…
The role of direct cell-to-cell spread in viral infections - where virions spread between host and susceptible cells without needing to be secreted into the extracellular environment - has come to be understood as essential to the dynamics…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Globally, the outbreaks of infectious diseases have exerted an extremely profound and severe influence on health security and the economy. During the critical phases of epidemics, devising effective intervention measures poses a significant…
In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
Understanding the spread of any disease is a highly complex and interdisciplinary exercise as biological, social, geographic, economic, and medical factors may shape the way a disease moves through a population and options for its eventual…
The COVID-19 pandemic provided many modeling challenges to investigate the evolution of an epidemic process over areal units. A suitable encompassing model must describe the spatio-temporal variations of the disease infection rate of…
An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…
In this manuscript, we use meteorological information in Galicia (Spain) to propose a novel approach to predict the incidence of influenza. Our approach extends the GLS methods in the multivariate framework to functional regression models…
To study the impact of climate variables on morbidity of some diseases in Mexico, we propose a spatio-temporal varying coefficients regression model. For that we introduce a new spatio-temporal dependent process prior, in a Bayesian…
If model identifiability is not confirmed, inferences from infectious disease transmission models may not be reliable, so they might lead to misleading recommendations. Structural identifiability analysis characterizes whether it is…
We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…
Spatial connectivity is an important consideration when modelling infectious disease data across a geographical region. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared characteristics between regions, and human or vector movement.…
In network-based SIS models of infectious disease transmission, infection can only occur between directly connected individuals. This constraint naturally gives rise to spatial correlations between the states of neighboring nodes, as the…
Models of disease spreading are critical for predicting infection growth in a population and evaluating public health policies. However, standard models typically represent the dynamics of disease transmission between individuals using…
Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…
Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…