Related papers: A hypothesis test of feasibility for external pilo…
A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…
Effective decision making from randomised controlled clinical trials relies on robust interpretation of the numerical results. However, the language we use to describe clinical trials can cause confusion both in trial design and in…
Rewards and punishments in different forms are pervasive and present in a wide variety of decision-making scenarios. By observing the outcome of a sufficient number of repeated trials, one would gradually learn the value and usefulness of a…
A prediction model is most useful if it generalizes beyond the development data with external validations, but to what extent should it generalize remains unclear. In practice, prediction models are externally validated using data from very…
The ongoing pandemic has highlighted the importance of reliable and efficient clinical trials in healthcare. Trial sites, where the trials are conducted, are chosen mainly based on feasibility in terms of medical expertise and access to a…
Replicability analysis aims to identify the findings that replicated across independent studies that examine the same features. We provide powerful novel replicability analysis procedures for two studies for FWER and for FDR control on the…
In clinical trials, inferences on clinical outcomes are often made conditional on specific selective processes. For instance, only when a treatment demonstrates a significant effect on the primary outcome, further analysis is conducted to…
In oncology, phase II or multiple expansion cohort trials are crucial for clinical development plans. This is because they aid in identifying potent agents with sufficient activity to continue development and confirm the proof of concept.…
External validation is widely regarded as the gold standard for prognostic model evaluation. In this study, we challenge the assumption that successful external calibration guarantees model generalizability and propose two complementary…
Hybrid controlled trials (HCTs), which augment randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external controls (ECs), are increasingly receiving attention as a way to address limited power, slow accrual, and ethical concerns in clinical…
Lack of reliability is a well-known issue for reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. This problem has gained increasing attention in recent years, and efforts to improve it have grown substantially. To aid RL researchers and production…
When individuals participating in a randomized trial differ with respect to the distribution of effect modifiers compared compared with the target population where the trial results will be used, treatment effect estimates from the trial…
The rise in computational capability has increased reliance on simulations to inform aircraft design. However aircraft airworthiness testing for flight certification remains rooted in real-world experiments performed after manufacturing an…
We seek to understand the probability an individual benefits from treatment (PIBT), an inestimable quantity that must be bounded in practice. Given the innate uncertainty in the population-level bounds on PIBT, we seek to better understand…
Recent research in causal inference has made important progress in addressing challenges to the external validity of trial findings. Such methods weight trial participant data to more closely resemble the distribution of effect-modifying…
While the recent literature has seen a surge in the study of constrained bandit problems, all existing methods for these begin by assuming the feasibility of the underlying problem. We initiate the study of testing such feasibility…
We propose a test-based elastic integrative analysis of the randomized trial and real-world data to estimate treatment effect heterogeneity with a vector of known effect modifiers. When the real-world data are not subject to bias, our…
The standard paradigm for confirmatory clinical trials is to compare experimental treatments with a control, for example the standard of care or a placebo. However, it is not always the case that a suitable control exists. Efficient…
Causal probing aims to analyze foundation models by examining how intervening on their representation of various latent properties impacts their outputs. Recent works have cast doubt on the theoretical basis of several leading causal…
This paper provides a quantitative method for estimating the risk associated with candidate transportation technology, before it is developed and deployed. The proposed solution extends previous methods that rely exclusively on low-fidelity…