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There are known expressions to calculate the moments of the first passage time in Markov chains. Nevertheless, it is commonly forgotten that in most applications the parameters of the Markov chain are constructed using estimates based upon…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-04 Carlos Hernandez-Suarez

We consider the problem of bounding mean first passage times for a class of continuous-time Markov chains that captures stochastic interactions between groups of identical agents. The quantitative analysis of such probabilistic population…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-04-07 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Verena Wolf

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Semen A. Trygubenko , David J. Wales

This article describes an accurate procedure for computing the mean first passage times of a finite irreducible Markov chain and a Markov renewal process. The method is a refinement to the Kohlas, Zeit fur Oper Res, 30,197-207, (1986)…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-17 Jeffrey J. Hunter

The distribution of the "mixing time" or the "time to stationarity" in a discrete time irreducible Markov chain, starting in state i, can be defined as the number of trials to reach a state sampled from the stationary distribution of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-05 Jeffrey J. Hunter

General upper bounds on fluctuations of trajectory observables were recently obtained. It turned out that the size of fluctuations of dynamical observable is limited from below and from above. For the moment generating function of general…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-05-13 V. V. Ryazanov

First-passage time problems are ubiquitous across many fields of study including transport processes in semiconductors and biological synapses, evolutionary game theory and percolation. Despite their prominence, first-passage time…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-02-01 Wilhelm Braun , Rüdiger Thul

In this paper, we provide a methodology for computing the probability distribution of sojourn times for a wide class of Markov chains. Our methodology consists in writing out linear systems and matrix equations for generating functions…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-09 Valentina Cammarota , Aimé Lachal

We determine the asymptotic speed of the first-passage percolation process on some ladder-like graphs (or width-2 stretches) when the times associated with different edges are independent and exponentially distributed but not necessarily…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-24 Henrik Renlund

Fluctuations in stochastic systems are usually characterized by the full counting statistics, which analyzes the distribution of the number of events taking place in the fixed time interval. In an alternative approach, the distribution of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-01-24 Krzysztof Ptaszynski

Consider a Markov chain with finite state $\{0, 1, ..., d\}$. We give the generation functions (or Laplace transforms) of absorbing (passage) time in the following two situations : (1) the absorbing time of state $d$ when the chain starts…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-09 Wenming Hong , Ke Zhou

A popular method to compute first-passage probabilities in continuous-time Markov chains is by numerically inverting their Laplace transforms. Past decades, the scientific computing community has developed excellent numerical methods for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-01 Debarati Bhaumik , Marko A. A. Boon , Daan Crommelin , Barry Koren , Bert Zwart

A general theory is derived for the moments of the first passage time of a one-dimensional Markov process in presence of a weak time-dependent forcing. The linear corrections to the moments can be expressed by quadratures of the potential…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Benjamin Lindner

First-passage times provide invaluable insight into fundamental properties of stochastic processes. Yet, various forms of gating mask first-passage times and differentiate them from actual detection times. For instance, imperfect conditions…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-09-27 Aanjaneya Kumar , Yuval Scher , Shlomi Reuveni , M. S. Santhanam

First-passage properties are central to the kinetics of target-search processes. Theoretical approaches so far primarily focused on predicting first-passage statistics for a given process or model. In practice, however, one faces the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-08 Rick Bebon , Aljaz Godec

Questions are posed regarding the influence that the column sums of the transition probabilities of a stochastic matrix (with row sums all one) have on the stationary distribution, the mean first passage times and the Kemeny constant of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-05 Jeffrey J. Hunter

We consider first-passage percolation on a ladder, i.e. the graph {0,1,...}*{0,1} where nodes at distance 1 are joined by an edge, and the times are exponentially i.i.d. with mean 1. We find an appropriate Markov chain to calculate an…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-09-29 Henrik Renlund

We establish general theorems quantifying the notion of recurrence --- through an estimation of the moments of passage times --- for irreducible continuous-time Markov chains on countably infinite state spaces. Sharp conditions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Mikhail Menshikov , Dimitri Petritis

Finding representative reaction pathways is necessary for understanding mechanisms of molecular processes, but is considered to be extremely challenging. We propose a new method to construct reaction paths based on mean first-passage times.…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2015-06-26 Sanghyun Park , Klaus Schulten

The influence of a time-periodic forcing on stochastic processes can essentially be emphasized in the large time behaviour of their paths. The statistics of transition in a simple Markov chain model permits to quantify this influence. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-27 Samuel Herrmann , Damien Landon
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