Related papers: Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Str…
Streaks of success have always fascinated people and a lot of research has been conducted to identify whether the "hot hand" effect is real. While sports have provided an appropriate platform for studying this phenomenon, the majority of…
Sports data analytics is a relevant topic in applied statistics that has been growing in importance in recent years. In basketball, a player or team has a hot hand when their performance during a match is better than expected or they are on…
This paper aims to revisit and expand upon previous work on the "hot hand" phenomenon in basketball, specifically in the NBA. Using larger, modern data sets, we test streakiness of shooting patterns and the presence of hot hand behavior in…
We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The magnitude of this streak selection bias generally decreases as the…
We investigate the hot hand phenomenon using data on 110,513 free throws taken in the National Basketball Association (NBA). As free throws occur at unevenly spaced time points within a game, we consider a state-space model formulated in…
The debate surrounding the hot hand in the NBA has been ongoing for many years. However, many of the previous works on this theme has focused on only the very next sequential shot attempt, often on very select players. This work looks in…
For a sequence of $n$ random variables taking values $0$ or $1$, the hot hand statistic of streak length $k$ counts what fraction of the streaks of length $k$, that is, $k$ consecutive variables taking the value $1$, among the $n$ variables…
We review approaches to statistical inference based on randomization. Permutation tests are treated as an important special case. Under a certain group invariance property, referred to as the ``randomization hypothesis,'' randomization…
Consider the problem of modeling memory effects in discrete-state random walks using higher-order Markov chains. This paper explores cross validation and information criteria as proxies for a model's predictive accuracy. Our objective is to…
Various statistical tests have been developed for testing the equality of means in matched pairs with missing values. However, most existing methods are commonly based on certain distributional assumptions such as normality, 0-symmetry or…
The existence of "Hot Hands" and "Streaks" in sports and gambling is hotly debated, but there is no uncertainty about the recent batting-average of the New York Times: it is now two-for-two in mangling and misunderstanding elementary…
Among the sports fans beliefs about "hot hands" and "winning streaks" are widely spread, while the scientific debate about these effects is still ongoing. Recently in a paper by P. Ferreira [Physica A 500: 92-96] detrended fluctuation…
We analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the probability of observing the expected number of successes at each stage of a sequence of nested Bernoulli trials. Our motivation is the attempt to give a genuinely frequentist interpretation to the…
We consider a variant of sequential testing by betting where, at each time step, the statistician is presented with multiple data sources (arms) and obtains data by choosing one of the arms. We consider the composite global null hypothesis…
Given observations from a stationary time series, permutation tests allow one to construct exactly level $\alpha$ tests under the null hypothesis of an i.i.d. (or, more generally, exchangeable) distribution. On the other hand, when the null…
The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability…
In this paper, our interest is in the problem of simultaneous hypothesis testing when the test statistics corresponding to the individual hypotheses are possibly correlated. Specifically, we consider the case when the test statistics…
Anomaly detection when observing a large number of data streams is essential in a variety of applications, ranging from epidemiological studies to monitoring of complex systems. High-dimensional scenarios are usually tackled with…
We propose a new nonparametric test for the supposition of independence between two continuous random variables. The test is based on the size of the longest increasing subsequence of a random permutation. We identified the independence…
Using techniques from Poisson approximation, we prove explicit error bounds on the number of permutations that avoid any pattern. Most generally, we bound the total variation distance between the joint distribution of pattern occurrences…