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The statistical estimation of phylogenies is always associated with uncertainty, and accommodating this uncertainty is an important component of modern phylogenetic comparative analysis. The birth-death polytomy resolver is a method of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-18 Daniel L. Rabosky

A fundamental problem in Bayesian inference and statistical machine learning is to efficiently sample from multimodal distributions. Due to metastability, multimodal distributions are difficult to sample using standard Markov chain Monte…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-27 Yulong Lu , Jianfeng Lu , James Nolen

Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-08 Lam Si Tung Ho , Jason Xu , Forrest W. Crawford , Vladimir N. Minin , Marc A. Suchard

A phylogeny describes the evolutionary history of an evolving population. Evolutionary search algorithms can perfectly track the ancestry of candidate solutions, illuminating a population's trajectory through the search space. However,…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Alexander Lalejini , Marcos Sanson , Jack Garbus , Matthew Andres Moreno , Emily Dolson

We propose a novel method for automatic program synthesis. P-Tree Programming represents the program search space through a single probabilistic prototype tree. From this prototype tree we form program instances which we evaluate on a given…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-07-13 Christian Oesch

Calibrating mathematical models of biological processes is essential for achieving predictive accuracy and gaining mechanistic insight. However, this task remains challenging due to limited and noisy data, significant biological…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-04 Piotr Gwiazda , Alexey Kazarnikov , Anna Marciniak-Czochra , Zuzanna Szymańska

We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-05 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Michael I. Jordan

Data cleaning is naturally framed as probabilistic inference in a generative model of ground-truth data and likely errors, but the diversity of real-world error patterns and the hardness of inference make Bayesian approaches difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alexander K. Lew , Monica Agrawal , David Sontag , Vikash K. Mansinghka

Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) allow programmers to construct statistical models and then simulate data or perform inference over them. Many PPLs restrict models to a particular instance of simulation or inference, limiting…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Minh Nguyen , Roly Perera , Meng Wang , Nicolas Wu

In vitro cell biology experiments are routinely used to characterize cell migration properties under various experimental conditions. These experiments can be interpreted using lattice-based random walk models to provide insight into…

Applied Physics · Physics 2024-06-25 Yihan Liu , David J Warne , Matthew J Simpson

Inferring dependencies between complex biological traits while accounting for evolutionary relationships between specimens is of great scientific interest yet remains infeasible when trait and specimen counts grow large. The…

In this article, we present the elitist particle filter based on evolutionary strategies (EPFES) as an efficient approach for nonlinear system identification. The EPFES is derived from the frequently-employed state-space model, where the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-26 Christian Huemmer , Christian Hofmann , Roland Maas , Walter Kellermann

Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are an expressive means of representing and reasoning about probabilistic models. The computational challenge of probabilistic inference remains the primary roadblock for applying PPLs in practice.…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2020-10-19 Steven Holtzen , Guy Van den Broeck , Todd Millstein

Estimating divergence times from molecular sequence data is central to reconstructing the evolutionary history of lineages. Although Bayesian relaxed-clock methods provide a principled framework for incorporating fossil information, their…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-03 Gregory M Ellison , Liang Liu

A major trend in academia and data science is the rapid adoption of Bayesian statistics for data analysis and modeling, leading to the development of probabilistic programming languages (PPL). A PPL provides a framework that allows users to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-02-15 James. W. Nightingale , Richard G. Hayes , Matthew Griffiths

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-10-11 Forrest W. Crawford , Marc A. Suchard

The parameters of many classes of birth-death processes cannot be inferred uniquely from phylogenetic trees: infinitely many parameter combinations yield the same distribution of phylogenetic trees. Here, we show that parameter…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-21 Tobias Dieselhorst , Tanja Stadler

Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are powerful modelling tools which allow to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about its inherent uncertainty. Inference methods used in PPL can be computationally costly due to…

Foundation models (FMs) have recently opened up new frontiers in the field of artificial life (ALife) by providing powerful tools to automate search through ALife simulations. Previous work aligns ALife simulations with natural language…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Nikhil Baid , Hannah Erlebach , Paul Hellegouarch , Frederico Wieser

Bayesian inference methods rely on numerical algorithms for both model selection and parameter inference. In general, these algorithms require a high computational effort to yield reliable estimates. One of the major challenges in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-08-09 Patricio Maturana , Brendon J. Brewer , Steffen Klaere , Remco Bouckaert