Related papers: Solar cycle prediction
An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric…
The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…
Despite investments in multiple space and ground-based solar observatories by the global community, the Sun's polar regions remain unchartered territory - the last great frontier for solar observations. Breaching this frontier is…
Recent research has demonstrated the existence of a new type of solar event, the "terminator." Unlike the Sun's signature events, flares and Coronal Mass Ejections, the terminator most likely originates in the solar interior, at or near the…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high speed solar streams serve as perturbations to the background solar wind that have major implications in space weather dynamics. Therefore, a robust framework for accurate predictions of the background…
I summarize in four slides the 40 years of development of the standard solar model that is used to predict solar neutrino fluxes and then describe the current uncertainties in the predictions. I next dispel the misconception that the p-p…
The solar dynamo is essentially a cyclic process in which the toroidal component of the magnetic field is converted into the poloidal one and vice versa. This cyclic loop is disturbed by some nonlinear and stochastic processes mainly…
Some selected concepts for the solar activity cycle are briefly reviewed. Cycle modulations through a stochastic alpha effect are being identified with limited scale separation ratios. Three-dimensional turbulence simulations with helicity…
We review the surface flux transport model for the evolution of magnetic flux patterns on the Sun's surface. Our underlying motivation is to understand the model's prediction of the polar field (or axial dipole) strength at the end of the…
The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognised as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not…
Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to…
According to the scheme of action of the solar dynamo, the poloidal magnetic field can be considered a source of production of the toroidal magnetic field by the solar differential rotation. From the polar magnetic field proxies, it is…
The annual temperature cycle of the earth closely follows the annual cycle of solar flux. At temperate latitudes, both driving and response cycles are well described by a strong annual sinusoidal component and a non-vanishing semiannual…
Solar activity and solar wind parameters decreased significantly in solar cycles (SCs) 23-24. In this paper, we analyze solar wind measurements at the rising phase of SC 25 and compare them with similar data from the previous cycles. For…
To reproduce the weak magnetic field on the polar caps of the Sun observed during the declining phase of cycle 23 poses a challenge to surface flux transport models since this cycle has not been particularly weak. We use a well-calibrated…
Context: The Sun's polar fields and open flux around the time of activity minima have been considered to be strongly correlated with the strength of the subsequent maximum of solar activity. Aims: We aim to investigate the behavior of a…
The prediction of solar flares, eruptions, and high energy particle storms is of great societal importance. The data mining approach to forecasting has been shown to be very promising. Benchmark datasets are a key element in the further…
Research efforts that require observations of high solar activity, such as multiwavelength studies of large solar flares and CMEs, must contend with the 11-year solar cycle to a degree unparalleled by other segments of heliophysics. While…
The solar magnetic activity cycle is responsible for periodic episodes of severe space weather, which can perturb satellite orbits, interfere with communications systems, and bring down power grids. Much progress has recently been made in…
In this short review, I present some of the recent progresses on the pending questions of solar physics. These questions let us revisit the solar wind, the solar dynamo problem, the dynamics of the photosphere and finally have a glimpse at…