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In the last decades, many authors have used the susceptible-infected-recovered model to study the impact of the disease spreading on the evolution of the infected individuals. However, few authors focused on the temporal unfolding of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-07-03 L. D. Valdez , P. A. Macri , L. A. Braunstein

Waiting times between two consecutive infection and recovery events in spreading processes are often assumed to be exponentially distributed, which results in Markovian (i.e., memoryless) continuous spreading dynamics. However, this is not…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-27 Lucas Böttcher , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

This paper develops nonparametric methods for the survival analysis of epidemic data based on contact intervals. The contact interval from person i to person j is the time between the onset of infectiousness in i and infectious contact from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Eben Kenah

We study the large-time asymptotic of renewal-reward processes with a heavy-tailed waiting time distribution. It is known that the heavy tail of the distribution produces an extremely slow dynamics, resulting in a singular large deviation…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-01-05 Hiroshi Horii , Raphael Lefevere , Takahiro Nemoto

In the vertex connectivity augmentation problem, we are given an undirected $n$-vertex graph $G$, a set of links $L \subseteq \binom{V(G)}{2} \setminus E(G)$, and integers $\lambda$ and $k$. The task is to insert at most $k$ links from $L$…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Tuukka Korhonen , Mikkel Thorup

We consider the critical spread-out contact process in Z^d with d\ge1, whose infection range is denoted by L\ge1. In this paper, we investigate the r-point function \tau_{\vec t}^{(r)}(\vec x) for r\ge3, which is the probability that, for…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-11 Remco van der Hofstad , Akira Sakai

We study the random times between successive cases in a transmission chain of infectious diseases with asymptomatic carriers. We derive the probability distribution of this generation time (in days) from a discrete-time epidemic model with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-16 Jordi Ripoll , Joan Saldaña

Halting a computer or biological virus outbreak requires a detailed understanding of the timing of the interactions between susceptible and infected individuals. While current spreading models assume that users interact uniformly in time,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-26 Alexei Vazquez , Racz Balazs , Lukacs Andras , Albert-Laszlo Barabasi

We show results for the contact process on Barabasi networks. The contact process is a model for an epidemic spreading without permanent immunity that has an absorbing state. For finite lattices, the absorbing state is the true stationary…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-01-24 D. S. M. Alencar , T. F. A. Alves , G. A. Alves , R. S. Ferreira , A. Macedo-Filho , F. W. S. Lima

We study the contact process with stirring on $\mathbb{Z}^d$. In this process, particles occupy vertices of $\mathbb{Z}^d$; each particle dies with rate 1 and generates a new particle at a randomly chosen neighboring vertex with rate…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-15 Anna Levit , Daniel Valesin

It is known that the limiting behavior of the contact process strongly depends upon the geometry of the graph on which particles evolve: while the contact process on the regular lattice exhibits only two phases, the process on homogeneous…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-03-02 Nicolas Lanchier

We consider Markovian susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics on time-invariant weighted contact networks where the infection and removal processes are Poisson and where network links may be directed or undirected. We prove that a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-12-19 Kieran J. Sharkey , Istvan Z. Kiss , Robert R. Wilkinson , Peter L. Simon

We consider a dynamical process on a graph $G$, in which vertices are infected (randomly) at a rate which depends on the number of their neighbours that are already infected. This model includes bootstrap percolation and first-passage…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Béla Bollobás , Simon Griffiths , Robert Morris , Leonardo Rolla , Paul Smith

We are interested in the geometry of the ``infection tree'' in a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model, starting with a single infectious individual. This tree is constructed by drawing an edge between two individuals when…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Emmanuel Kammerer , Igor Kortchemski , Delphin Sénizergues

We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Andrew Hart , Servet Martínez

We study competition between two growth models with long-range correlations on the torus $\mathbb T_n^d$ of size $n$ in dimension $d$. We append the edge set of the torus $\mathbb T_n^d$ by including all non-nearest-neighbour edges, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Bas Lodewijks , Neeladri Maitra

One model of real-life spreading processes is First Passage Percolation (also called SI model) on random graphs. Social interactions often follow bursty patterns, which are usually modelled with i.i.d.~heavy-tailed passage times on edges.…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-05 Alexey Medvedev , Gábor Pete

We study the following bootstrap percolation process: given a connected graph $G$, a constant $\rho \in [0, 1]$ and an initial set $A \subseteq V(G)$ of \emph{infected} vertices, at each step a vertex~$v$ becomes infected if at least a…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2018-04-03 Frederik Garbe , Andrew McDowell , Richard Mycroft

We formulate and analyze a novel hypothesis testing problem for inferring the edge structure of an infection graph. In our model, a disease spreads over a network via contagion or random infection, where the random variables governing the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-05 Justin Khim , Po-Ling Loh

We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-31 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux