Related papers: Hypotheses testing and posterior concentration rat…
This paper studies nonparametric estimation of parameters of multivariate Hawkes processes. We consider the Bayesian setting and derive posterior concentration rates. First rates are derived for L1-metrics for stochastic intensities of the…
Non-linear Hawkes processes with memory kernels given by the sum of Erlang kernels are considered. It is shown that their stability properties can be studied in terms of an associated class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes,…
We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate…
Multi-type Markov point processes offer a flexible framework for modelling complex multi-type point patterns where it is pertinent to capture both interactions between points as well as large scale trends depending on observed covariates.…
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework for inference in spatio-temporal Hawkes processes, extending existing theoretical results beyond the purely temporal setting. Our framework encompasses modelling both the background and…
We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…
In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…
This paper presents a complete methodology for Bayesian inference on a semi-Markov process, from the elicitation of the prior distribution, to the computation of posterior summaries, including a guidance for its JAGS implementation. The…
New algorithms for construction of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces are presented. These algorithms are based on a special technique of sequential…
We derive new concentration bounds for time averages of measurement outcomes in quantum Markov processes. This generalizes well-known bounds for classical Markov chains which provide constraints on finite time fluctuations of time-additive…
We study properties of a piecewise deterministic Markov process modeling the changes in concentration of specific antibodies. The evolution of densities of the process is described by a stochastic semigroup. The long-time behaviour of this…
Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of…
By making full use of heat kernel estimates, we establish the integral tests on the zero-one laws of upper and lower bounds for the sample path ranges of symmetric Markov processes. In particular, these results concerning on upper rate…
Bayesian nonparametric inferential procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo marginal methods typically yield point estimates in the form of posterior expectations. Though very useful and easy to implement in a variety of statistical…
Consider a branching Markov process, $X = (X(t), t \ge 0)$, with non-local branching mechanism. Studying the asymptotic behaviour of the moments of X has recently received attention in the literature [6, 7] due to the importance of these…
This paper proposes nonparametric two-sample tests for the direct comparison of the probabilities of a particular transition between states of a continuous time nonhomogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The proposed tests are…
This paper illustrates novel methods for nonstationary time series modeling along with their applications to selected problems in neuroscience. These methods are semi-parametric in that inferences are derived by combining sequential…
Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…
For a (non-symmetric) strong Markov process $X$, consider the Feynman--Kac semigroup \[T_t^Af(x):=\mathbb {E}^x\bigl[e^{A_t}f(X_t)\bigr],\quad x\in {\mathbb {R}^n}, t>0,\] where $A$ is a continuous additive functional of $X$ associated with…
We consider periodic Markov chains with absorption. Applying to iterates of this periodic Markov chain criteria for the exponential convergence of conditional distributions of aperiodic absorbed Markov chains, we obtain exponential…