Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to In-Game Win Probability in …
In this work, we extended a stochastic model for football leagues based on the team's potential [R. da Silva et al. Comput. Phys. Commun. \textbf{184} 661--670 (2013)] for making predictions instead of only performing a successful…
We introduce a "high probability" framework for repeated games with incomplete information. In our non-equilibrium setting, players aim to guarantee a certain payoff with high probability, rather than in expected value. We provide a high…
Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the not purely random, but highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the probability distributions of scored goals for…
Batting average is one of the principle performance measures for an individual baseball player. It is natural to statistically model this as a binomial-variable proportion, with a given (observed) number of qualifying attempts (called…
Advanced analytics have transformed how sports teams operate, particularly in episodic sports like baseball. Their impact on continuous invasion sports, such as soccer and ice hockey, has been limited due to increased game complexity and…
In soccer games, the goalkeeper's performance is an important factor to the success of the whole team. Despite the goalkeeper's importance, little attention has been paid to their performance in events and tracking data. Here, we developed…
In the run-up to any major sports tournament, winning probabilities of participants are publicized for engagement and betting purposes. These are generally based on simulating the tournament tens of thousands of times by sampling from…
The authors propose a parametric model called the arena model for prediction in paired competitions, i.e. paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The arena model has a number of appealing advantages. First, it predicts the…
Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of…
In this paper, we study interaction dynamics in the game of football-soccer in the context of ball possession intervals. To do so, we analyze a database comprising one season of the five major football leagues of Europe. Using this input,…
Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…
This study applies complexity sciences to analyze the game of Padel. Data from 18 professional matches were collected, and the probability distributions of the total number of shots and the probability distribution of rallies' duration were…
We present ten different strength-based statistical models that we use to model soccer match outcomes with the aim of producing a new ranking. The models are of four main types: Thurstone-Mosteller, Bradley-Terry, Independent Poisson and…
Sport analysis is crucial for team performance since it provides actionable data that can inform coaching decisions, improve player performance, and enhance team strategies. To analyze more complex features from game footage, a computer…
The Pythagorean formula is one of the most popular ways to measure the true ability of a team. It is very easy to use, estimating a team's winning percentage from the runs they score and allow. This data is readily available on standings…
One of the most important and challenging problems in football is predicting future player performance when transferred to another club within and between different leagues. In addition to being the most valuable prediction a team makes, it…
The forecasting of sports events is of broad interest from the applied but also from the theoretical perspective. In this work the question is addressed for the example of the German soccer Bundesliga how a theoretically optimum forecast of…
This paper proposes a new way of evaluating the accuracy and validity of probabilistic forecasts that change over time (such as an in-game win probability model, or an election forecast). Under this approach, each model to be evaluated is…
Traditional approaches to measuring visual exploratory behavior in soccer rely on counting visual exploratory actions (VEAs) based on rapid head movements exceeding 125{\deg}/s, but this method suffer from player position bias (i.e., a…
Evaluating the accuracies of models for match outcome predictions is nice and well but in the end the real proof is in the money to be made by betting. To evaluate the question whether the models developed by us could be used easily to make…