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Professional team sports provide an excellent domain for studying the dynamics of social competitions. These games are constructed with simple, well-defined rules and payoffs that admit a high-dimensional set of possible actions and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-06-17 Leto Peel , Aaron Clauset

Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals can be described by a constant goal rate for each team, implying simple Poissonian…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-07-19 Andreas Heuer , Oliver Rubner

In soccer, contextual player performance metrics are invaluable to coaches. For example, the ability to perform under pressure during matches distinguishes the elite from the average. Appropriate pressure metric enables teams to assess…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Chaoyi Gu , Jiaming Na , Yisheng Pei , Varuna De Silva

With the increasingly detailed investigation of game play and tactics in invasive team sports such as soccer, it becomes ever more important to present causes, actions and findings in a meaningful manner. Visualizations, especially when…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-12 Maximilian T. Fischer , Daniel A. Keim , Manuel Stein

Quantitative analysis of soccer players' passing ability focuses on descriptive statistics without considering the players' real contribution to the passing and ball possession strategy of their team. Which player is able to help the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-12 Laszlo Gyarmati , Rade Stanojevic

Soccer is a sparse rewarding game: any smart or careless action in critical situations can change the result of the match. Therefore players, coaches, and scouts are all curious about the best action to be performed in critical situations,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-15 Pegah Rahimian , Afshin Oroojlooy , Laszlo Toka

We have developed a sophisticated statistical model for predicting the hitting performance of Major League baseball players. The Bayesian paradigm provides a principled method for balancing past performance with crucial covariates, such as…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-21 Shane T. Jensen , Blake McShane , Abraham J. Wyner

As a dedicated follower of sports statistics and with the MLB season beginning in late March, I set out to predict how many wins each team would accumulate by the end of the 162 game season. The goal was to build a simulation framework…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-09 Simon Cha

There seems to be an upper limit to predicting the outcome of matches in (semi-)professional sports. Recent work has proposed that this is due to chance and attempts have been made to simulate the distribution of win percentages to identify…

Applications · Statistics 2015-08-21 Albrecht Zimmermann

A random walk-like model is considered to discuss statistical aspects of tournaments. The model is applied to soccer leagues with emphasis on the scores. This competitive system was computationally simulated and the results are compared…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-04-30 H. V. Ribeiro , R. S. Mendes , L. C. Malacarne , S. Picoli , P. A. Santoro

We modeled the dynamics of a soccer match based on a network representation where players are nodes discretely clustered into homogeneous groups. Players were grouped by physical proximity, supported by the intuitive notion that competing…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-08-09 Luis Ramada Pereira , Rui J. Lopes , Jorge Louçã , Duarte Araújo , João Ramos

A myriad of different data are generated to characterize a soccer match. Here we discuss which performance indicators are particularly helpful to forecast the future results of a team via an estimation of the underlying team strengths with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-10 Andreas Heuer

Computer-aided support and analysis are becoming increasingly important in the modern world of sports. The scouting of potential prospective players, performance as well as match analysis, and the monitoring of training programs rely more…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Jonas Theiner , Wolfgang Gritz , Eric Müller-Budack , Robert Rein , Daniel Memmert , Ralph Ewerth

In soccer, game context can result in skewing offensive statistics in ways that might misrepresent how well a team has played. For instance, in England's 1-2 loss to France in the 2022 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal, England attempted…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-07 Andrey Skripnikov , Ahmet Cemek , David Gillman

During the last few sports seasons a lot of discussion has been generated for the several, high-profile, "comebacks" that were observed in almost all sports. The Cavaliers won the championship after being down 3-1 in the 2016 NBA finals'…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-15 Konstantinos Pelechrinis

We present a fully convolutional neural network architecture that is capable of estimating full probability surfaces of potential passes in soccer, derived from high-frequency spatiotemporal data. The network receives layers of low-level…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-05 Javier Fernández , Luke Bornn

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-20 Lucas Maystre , Victor Kristof , Matthias Grossglauser

The use of statistical modeling in baseball has received substantial attention recently in both the media and academic community. We focus on a relatively under-explored topic: the use of statistical models for the analysis of fielding…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-14 Shane T. Jensen , Kenneth E. Shirley , Abraham J. Wyner

In the sports of soccer, hockey and basketball the most commonly used statistics for player performance assessment are divided into two categories: offensive statistics and defensive statistics. However, qualitative assessments of…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-04 Shael Brown

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Euihyeon Choi , Jooyoung Kim , Wonkyung Lee