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The quest for precision in parameter estimation is a fundamental task in different scientific areas. The relevance of this problem thus provided the motivation to develop methods for the application of quantum resources to estimation…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-06-18 Valeria Cimini , Emanuele Polino , Mauro Valeri , Nicolò Spagnolo , Fabio Sciarrino

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Fanyi Wu , Veronika Lohmanova , Samuel Kaski , Michele Caprio

Estimating the entropy rate of discrete time series is a challenging problem with important applications in numerous areas including neuroscience, genomics, image processing and natural language processing. A number of approaches have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-22 Ioannis Papageorgiou , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Bayesian inference can be embedded into an appropriately defined dynamics in the space of probability measures. In this paper, we take Brownian motion and its associated Fokker--Planck equation as a starting point for such embeddings and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-02-09 Sebastian Reich , Simon Weissmann

Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. In this work, we revisit the derivation of estimators for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-05 Ethan T. Neil , Jacob W. Sitison

We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function $u$ from noisy measurements $y$ of a known, possibly nonlinear, map $\mathcal{G}$ applied to $u$. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-20 Masoumeh Dashti , Kody J. H. Law , Andrew M. Stuart , Jochen Voss

Processing in memory (PIM) moves computation into memories with the goal of improving throughput and energy-efficiency compared to traditional von Neumann-based architectures. Most existing PIM architectures are either general-purpose but…

Hardware Architecture · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Oscar Castañeda , Maria Bobbett , Alexandra Gallyas-Sanhueza , Christoph Studer

Data-informed predictive maintenance planning largely relies on stochastic deterioration models. Monitoring information can be utilized to update sequentially the knowledge on time-invariant deterioration model parameters either within an…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-02 Antonios Kamariotis , Luca Sardi , Iason Papaioannou , Eleni Chatzi , Daniel Straub

We used methods of Bayesian statistical inference and the principle of maximum entropy to analytically continue imaginary-time Green's function generated in quantum Monte Carlo simulations to obtain the real-time Green's functions. For test…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-28 J. Bonca , J. E. Gubernatis

Most biological signals are non-Gaussian, reflecting their origins in highly nonlinear physiological systems. A versatile set of techniques for studying non-Gaussian signals relies on the spectral representations of higher moments, known as…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-30 Christopher K. Kovach , Hiroyuki Oya , Hiroto Kawasaki

Real-world problems often involve the optimization of several objectives under multiple constraints. An example is the hyper-parameter tuning problem of machine learning algorithms. In particular, the minimization of the estimation of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-02 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Verifying the correctness of Bayesian computation is challenging. This is especially true for complex models that are common in practice, as these require sophisticated model implementations and algorithms. In this paper we introduce…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-22 Sean Talts , Michael Betancourt , Daniel Simpson , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

A wide class of Bayesian models involve unidentifiable random matrices that display rotational ambiguity, with the Gaussian factor model being a typical example. A rich variety of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-16 Evan Poworoznek , Niccolo Anceschi , Federico Ferrari , David Dunson

Bayes linear analysis and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are techniques commonly used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models. In this article we connect these ideas by demonstrating that regression-adjustment ABC algorithms…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-12-10 D. J. Nott , Y. Fan , L. Marshall , S. A. Sisson

As modern neural networks get more complex, specifying a model with high predictive performance and sound uncertainty quantification becomes a more challenging task. Despite some promising theoretical results on the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Alisa Sheinkman , Sara Wade

Recent work has developed a non-parametric Bayesian approach to the calibration of a computer model, which abstractly amounts to the inversion of a pushforward of stochastic input parameters by a smooth map. The framework has been used in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Akshay Prasadan , Donald Estep , Derek Bingham

We critique a Pade analytic continuation method whereby a rational polynomial function is fit to a set of input points by means of a single matrix inversion. This procedure is accomplished to an extremely high accuracy using a novel…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2009-10-31 K. S. D. Beach , R. J. Gooding , F. Marsiglio

An important problem in many-body physics is to reconstruct the spectral density from the imaginary-time domain Green's function. Typically, the imaginary-time Green's function is generated by Monte Carlo methods. As the one-point fermionic…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2026-02-24 Fakher Assaad , Johanna Erdmenger , Anika Götz , René Meyer , Martin Rackl , Yanick Thurn

We extend the recently developed Quantum Quasi-Monte Carlo (QQMC) approach to obtain the full frequency dependence of Green functions in a single calculation. QQMC is a general approach for calculating high-order perturbative expansions in…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2021-04-07 Corentin Bertrand , Daniel Bauernfeind , Philipp T. Dumitrescu , Marjan Maček , Xavier Waintal , Olivier Parcollet

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-15 Marko Järvenpää , Michael U. Gutmann , Arijus Pleska , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen
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