Related papers: Ensemble MCMC: Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC f…

The Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) represent a versatile class of data-driven nonlinear dynamical system models. However, the presence of numerous latent variables in GPSSM incurs unresolved issues for existing variational…

This paper presents the machine learning-based ensemble conditional mean filter (ML-EnCMF) -- a filtering method based on the conditional mean filter (CMF) previously introduced in the literature. The updated mean of the CMF matches that of…

Ensemble methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are widely used for data assimilation in large-scale geophysical applications, as for example in numerical weather prediction (NWP). There is a growing interest for physical models…

The Bootstrap Particle Filter (BPF) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are two widely used methods for sequential Bayesian filtering: the BPF is asymptotically exact but can suffer from weight degeneracy, while the EnKF scales well in…

The Ensemble Kalman Filters (EnKF) employ a Monte-Carlo approach to represent covariance information, and are affected by sampling errors in operational settings where the number of model realizations is much smaller than the model state…

Ensemble data assimilation methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are a key component of probabilistic weather forecasting. They represent the uncertainty in the initial conditions by an ensemble which incorporates information…

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations…

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

In this paper we address the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions in stochastic kinetic models (SKMs). SKMs are multivariate Markov jump processes that model the interactions among species in…

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

State-of-the-art ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) algorithms require incorporating localization techniques to cope with the rank deficiency and the inherited spurious correlations in their error covariance matrices. Localization techniques…

I introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme in which sampling from a distribution with density pi(x) is done using updates operating on an "ensemble" of states. The current state x is first stochastically mapped to an ensemble,…

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm,…

As it has become common to use many computer cores in routine applications, finding good ways to parallelize popular algorithms has become increasingly important. In this paper, we present a parallelization scheme for Markov chain Monte…

We present a general framework for accelerating a large class of widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our approach exploits fast, iterative approximations to the target density to speculatively evaluate many potential…

We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…

We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…

This paper develops an efficient implementation of the ensemble Kalman filter based on a modified Cholesky decomposition for inverse covariance matrix estimation. This implementation is named EnKF-MC. Background errors corresponding to…

In the process of reproducing the state dynamics of parameter dependent distributed systems, data from physical measurements can be incorporated into the mathematical model to reduce the parameter uncertainty and, consequently, improve the…

Parameter estimation has a high importance in the geosciences. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) allows parameter estimation for large, time-dependent systems. For large systems, the EnKF is applied using small ensembles, which may lead to…