Related papers: Ensemble MCMC: Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC f…
Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$) methods can be used for parameter inference of intractable likelihood state-space models. These methods replace the likelihood with an unbiased particle filter estimator, similarly to particle Markov…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…
In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…
In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…
The event-chain Monte Carlo (ECMC) method is an irreversible Markov process based on the factorized Metropolis filter and the concept of lifted Markov chains. Here, ECMC is applied to all-atom models of multi-particle interactions that…
In this work, we present the ensemble-marginalized Kalman filter (EnMKF), a sequential algorithm analogous to our previously proposed approach [1,2], for estimating the state and parameters of linear parabolic partial differential equations…
The combinatorial sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) has been demonstrated to be an efficient complementary method to the standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for Bayesian phylogenetic tree inference using biological sequences. It is…
Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) is an efficient approach to addressing uncertainties in subsurface groundwater models. The EnKF sequentially integrates field data into simulation models to obtain a better characterization of the model's…
We introduce Preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilises a Normalising Flow (NF) in order to…
Particle filtering methods are widely applied in sequential state estimation within nonlinear non-Gaussian state space model. However, the traditional particle filtering methods suffer the weight degeneracy in the high-dimensional state…
In this work, we developed an efficient approach to compute ensemble averages in systems with pairwise-additive energetic interactions between the entities. Methods involving full enumeration of the configuration space result in exponential…
Data assimilation has been applied to coastal hydrodynamic models to better estimate system states or parameters by incorporating observed data into the model. Kalman Filter (KF) is one of the most studied data assimilation methods whose…
This work presents new results and understanding of the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for inverse problems. In particular, using a Lagrangian dual perspective we show that EnKF can be derived from the sample average approximation (SAA) of…
From basic considerations of the Lie group that preserves a target probability measure, we derive the Barker, Metropolis, and ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, as well as variants of waste-recycling Metropolis-Hastings…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are foundational algorithms for Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling. However, most MCMC algorithms are inherently sequential and their time complexity scales linearly with the sequence…
The rapid development of computing power and efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation algorithms have revolutionized Bayesian statistics, making it a highly practical inference method in applied work. However, MCMC algorithms…
We propose a Dynamical Low-Rank Ensemble Kalman Filter (DLR-ENKF) for efficient joint state-parameter estimation in high-dimensional dynamical systems. The method extends the DLR-ENKF formulation of arXiv:2509.11210 to the augmented…
A standard way to move particles in a SMC sampler is to apply several steps of a MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) kernel. Unfortunately, it is not clear how many steps need to be performed for optimal performance. In addition, the output of…