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Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-09 Felix S. Fauer , Henning W. Rust

A nonparametric procedure to estimate the conditional probability that a nonstationary geostatistical process exceeds a certain threshold value is proposed. The method consists of a bootstrap algorithm that combines conditional simulation…

Spatial prediction problems often use Gaussian process models, which can be computationally burdensome in high dimensions. Specification of an appropriate covariance function for the model can be challenging when complex non-stationarities…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Qi Wang , Paul A. Parker , Robert B. Lund

Uncertainty in return level estimates for rare events, like the intensity of large rainfall events, makes it difficult to develop strategies to mitigate related hazards, like flooding. Latent spatial extremes models reduce uncertainty by…

Applications · Statistics 2018-12-27 Joshua Hewitt , Miranda J. Fix , Jennifer A. Hoeting , Daniel S. Cooley

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-21 Julie Bessac , Emil Mihai Constantinescu , Mihai Anitescu

Deep learning has shown impressive results in a variety of time series forecasting tasks, where modeling the conditional distribution of the future given the past is the essence. However, when this conditional distribution is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Siqi Liu , Andreas Lehrmann

The spatial random-effects model is flexible in modeling spatial covariance functions, and is computationally efficient for spatial prediction via fixed rank kriging. However, the success of this model depends on an appropriate set of basis…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-23 ShengLi Tzeng , Hsin-Cheng Huang

This paper proposes a model-free nonparametric estimator of conditional quantile of a time series regression model where the covariate vector is repeated many times for different values of the response. This type of data is abound in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-07 Soudeep Deb , Kaushik Jana

There are many situations when modelling environmental phenomena for which it is not appropriate to assume a stationary dependence structure. \cite{sampson1992} proposed an approach to allowing nonstationarity in dependence based on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Benjamin D. Youngman

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-04 Griffin Mooers , Tom Beucler , Mike Pritchard , Stephan Mandt

This paper introduces a matrix-variate regression model for analyzing multivariate data observed across spatial locations and over time. The model's design incorporates a mean structure that links covariates to the response matrix and a…

Multivariate spatial field data are increasingly common and whose modeling typically relies on building cross-covariance functions to describe cross-process relationships. An alternative viewpoint is to model the matrix of spectral…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-07 William Kleiber

The advent of data science has provided an increasing number of challenges with high data complexity. This paper addresses the challenge of space-time data where the spatial domain is not a planar surface, a sphere, or a linear network, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-09 Emilio Porcu , Philip A. White , Marc G. Genton

A novel method is proposed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of moderate dimensional time series. This non-linear test statistic has a number of useful properties. Most importantly, it is independent of the underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-18 Sean Ryan , Rebecca Killick

Modeling a precipitation field is challenging due to its intermittent and highly scale-dependent nature. Motivated by the features of high-frequency precipitation data from a network of rain gauges, we propose a threshold space-time $t$…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-10 Ying Sun , Michael L. Stein

Nonparametric estimators for the mean and the covariance functions of functional data are proposed. The setup covers a wide range of practical situations. The random trajectories are, not necessarily differentiable, have unknown regularity,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Steven Golovkine , Nicolas Klutchnikoff , Valentin Patilea

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to modeling nonstationary spatial fields. The proposed method works by expanding the geographic plane over which these processes evolve into higher dimensional spaces, transforming and clarifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-22 Luke Bornn , Gavin Shaddick , James V Zidek

A new stochastic model for daily precipitation occurrence processes observed at multiple locations is developed. The modeling concept is to use the indicator function and the elliptical shape of multivariate Gaussian distribution to…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-02 Hsien-Wei Chen

This paper studies a regression model with functional dependent and explanatory variables, both of which exhibit nonstationary dynamics. The model assumes that the nonstationary stochastic trends of the dependent variable are explained by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Kyungsik Nam , Won-Ki Seo

Nonlinear regression is a useful statistical tool, relating observed data and a nonlinear function of unknown parameters. When the parameter-dependent nonlinear function is computationally intensive, a straightforward regression analysis by…

Applications · Statistics 2009-01-26 Dorin Drignei , Chris E. Forest , Doug Nychka