Related papers: Extreme sensitivity and climate tipping points
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
We develop the model of the critical phenomena of strongly interacting matter at high temperatures and baryon densities. The dual Yang-Mills theory with scalar degrees of freedom (the dilatons) is used. The dilatons are the consequence of a…
Klaus Hasselmann's revolutionary intuition in climate science was to take advantage of the stochasticity associated with fast weather processes to probe the slow dynamics of the climate system. This has led to fundamentally new ways to…
We study a one-dimensional chain of harmonically coupled units in an asymmetric anharmonic soft potential. Due to nonlinear localisation of energy, this system exhibits extreme events in the sense that individual elements of the chain show…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
Non-Hermitian systems at the exceptional point (EP) degeneracy are demonstrated to be highly sensitive to environmental perturbation. Here, we propose and theoretically investigate a novel multilayered heterostructure favoring double EPs…
The solution of energy-balance model of the Earth global climate and the EPICA Dome C and Vostok experimental data of the Earth surface palaeotemperature evolution over past 420 and 740 kyr are compared. In the framework of proposed…
The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…
The properties of the pure-site clusters of spin models, i.e. the clusters which are obtained by joining nearest-neighbour spins of the same sign, are here investigated. In the Ising model in two dimensions it is known that such clusters…
There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, posing serious threats to human life, biodiversity, and ecosystems. A key objective of extreme event attribution (EEA) is to assess whether and to what extent anthropogenic…
Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Human activities accelerate consumption of fossil fuels and produce greenhouse gases, resulting in urgent issues today: global warming and the climate change. These indirectly cause severe natural disasters, plenty of lives suffering and…
On the phase diagram of a system undergoing a continuous phase transition of the second order, three lines, hyper-surfaces, convergent into the critical point feature prominently: the ordered and disordered phases in the thermodynamic…
We introduce a model of interacting lattices at different resolutions driven by the two-dimensional Ising dynamics with a nearest-neighbor interaction. We study this model both with tools borrowed from equilibrium statistical mechanics as…
Tipping elements in the Earth System receive increased scientific attention over the recent years due to their nonlinear behavior and the risks of abrupt state changes. While being stable over a large range of parameters, a tipping element…
We examine a phase transition in a model of random spatial permutations which originates in a study of the interacting Bose gas. Permutations are weighted according to point positions; the low-temperature onset of the appearance of…
We study a two-layer energy balance model, that allows for vertical exchanges between a surface layer and the atmosphere. The evolution equations of the surface temperature and the atmospheric temperature are coupled by the emission of…
We obtain explicit expressions for the long range correlations in the ABC model and in diffusive models conditioned to produce an atypical current of particles.In both cases, the two-point correlation functions allow to detect the…