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The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and flexible demand technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, introduces significant uncertainty in power systems, resulting in greater imbalance; defined as the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-08 Timothée Hornek , Sergio Potenciano Menci , Ivan Pavić

A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the physical processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-09 Jaideep Pathak , Alexander Wikner , Rebeckah Fussell , Sarthak Chandra , Brian Hunt , Michelle Girvan , Edward Ott

Topological Data Analysis (TDA) is a recent approach to analyze data sets from the perspective of their topological structure. Its use for time series data has been limited. In this work, a system developed for a leading provider of cloud…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Rodrigo Rivera-Castro , Aleksandr Pletnev , Polina Pilyugina , Grecia Diaz , Ivan Nazarov , Wanyi Zhu , Evgeny Burnaev

Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Philipp Giese

Managing supply and demand in the electricity grid is becoming more challenging due to the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources. As significant end-use consumers, and through better grid integration, buildings are…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-14 Anjukan Kathirgamanathan , Mattia De Rosa , Eleni Mangina , Donal P. Finn

Because of increasing amounts of intermittent and distributed generators in power systems, many demand response programs have been developed to schedule flexible energy consumption. However, proper benchmarks for comparing these methods are…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-19 Koos van der Linden , Natalia Romero , Mathijs M. de Weerdt

Particle accelerators are complex facilities that produce large amounts of structured data and have clear optimization goals as well as precisely defined control requirements. As such they are naturally amenable to data-driven research…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2023-03-01 Sichen Li , Andreas Adelmann

Without the ability to estimate and benchmark AI capability advancements, organizations are left to respond to each change reactively, impeding their ability to build viable mid and long-term strategies. This paper explores the recent…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-04-03 Emily Dardaman , Abhishek Gupta

Predicting chaotic dynamical systems is critical in many scientific fields, such as weather forecasting, but challenging due to the characteristic sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Traditional modeling approaches require extensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Christof Schötz , Alistair White , Maximilian Gelbrecht , Niklas Boers

Assemble-to-order approaches deal with randomness in demand for end items by producing components under uncertainty, but assembling them only after demand is observed. Such planning problems can be tackled by stochastic programming, but…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-23 Daniele Giovanni Gioia , Edoardo Fadda , Paolo Brandimarte

Accurately predicting procurement lead time (PLT) remains a challenge in engineered-to-order industries such as shipbuilding and plant construction, where delays in a single key component can disrupt project timelines. In shipyards, pipe…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Yongjae Lee , Eunhee Park , Daesan Park , Dongho Kim , Jongho Choi , Hyerim Bae

Over the past thirty years, logistics has undergone tremendous change from a purely operational performance that led to sales or production and focused on securing supply and delivery lines to customers, with the transformation of…

General Economics · Economics 2022-06-27 Hamed Nozari , Mohammad Ebrahim Sadeghi , Javid Ghahremani nahr , Seyyed Esmaeil Najafi

This tutorial contrasts probabilistic modeling and robust optimization to determine decisions in humanitarian logistics, specifically supply chains subject to adversarial (natural and human) disruptions. Natural disruptions induce dispatch…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Justin Kilb , Daniel Bienstock , Alexandra M. Newman

Accurate demand forecasting is critical for supply chain optimization, yet remains difficult in practice due to hierarchical complexity, domain shifts, and evolving external factors. While recent foundation models offer strong potential for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Wei Yang , Defu Cao , Yan Liu

Demand forecasting is extremely important in revenue management. After all, it is one of the inputs to an optimisation method which aim is to maximize revenue. Most, if not all, forecasting methods use historical data to forecast the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-16 Daniel Hopman , Ger Koole , Rob van der Mei

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-09 Fotios Petropoulos , Daniele Apiletti , Vassilios Assimakopoulos , Mohamed Zied Babai , Devon K. Barrow , Souhaib Ben Taieb , Christoph Bergmeir , Ricardo J. Bessa , Jakub Bijak , John E. Boylan , Jethro Browell , Claudio Carnevale , Jennifer L. Castle , Pasquale Cirillo , Michael P. Clements , Clara Cordeiro , Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira , Shari De Baets , Alexander Dokumentov , Joanne Ellison , Piotr Fiszeder , Philip Hans Franses , David T. Frazier , Michael Gilliland , M. Sinan Gönül , Paul Goodwin , Luigi Grossi , Yael Grushka-Cockayne , Mariangela Guidolin , Massimo Guidolin , Ulrich Gunter , Xiaojia Guo , Renato Guseo , Nigel Harvey , David F. Hendry , Ross Hollyman , Tim Januschowski , Jooyoung Jeon , Victor Richmond R. Jose , Yanfei Kang , Anne B. Koehler , Stephan Kolassa , Nikolaos Kourentzes , Sonia Leva , Feng Li , Konstantia Litsiou , Spyros Makridakis , Gael M. Martin , Andrew B. Martinez , Sheik Meeran , Theodore Modis , Konstantinos Nikolopoulos , Dilek Önkal , Alessia Paccagnini , Anastasios Panagiotelis , Ioannis Panapakidis , Jose M. Pavía , Manuela Pedio , Diego J. Pedregal , Pierre Pinson , Patrícia Ramos , David E. Rapach , J. James Reade , Bahman Rostami-Tabar , Michał Rubaszek , Georgios Sermpinis , Han Lin Shang , Evangelos Spiliotis , Aris A. Syntetos , Priyanga Dilini Talagala , Thiyanga S. Talagala , Len Tashman , Dimitrios Thomakos , Thordis Thorarinsdottir , Ezio Todini , Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas , Xiaoqian Wang , Robert L. Winkler , Alisa Yusupova , Florian Ziel

Sales pipeline analysis is fundamental to proactive management of an enterprize's sales pipeline and critical for business success. In particular, win propensity prediction, which involves quantitatively estimating the likelihood that…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2015-02-24 Junchi Yan , Min Gong , Changhua Sun , Jin Huang , Stephen M. Chu

Process flexibility is widely adopted as an effective strategy for responding to uncertain demand. Many algorithms for constructing sparse flexibility designs with good theoretical guarantees have been developed for balanced and symmetrical…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-06-11 Xi Chen , Tengyu Ma , Jiawei Zhang , Yuan Zhou

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-17 Xixi Li , Fotios Petropoulos , Yanfei Kang

This paper introduces a novel characteristics-based specification for linear demand to investigate endogenous product design. Characteristics are allowed to affect both consumers' product valuations and to what extent these compete. I…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-04-08 Afonso Rodrigues