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We study the height and width of a Galton--Watson tree with offspring distribution B satisfying E(B)=1, 0 < Var(B) < infinity, conditioned on having exactly n nodes. Under this conditioning, we derive sub-Gaussian tail bounds for both the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-22 Louigi Addario-Berry , Luc Devroye , Svante Janson

Assume that claims in a portfolio of insurance contracts are described by independent and identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails and occur according to a near mixed Poisson process. We provide a collection of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-26 Hansjoerg Albrecher , Christian Robert , Jef Teugels

We establish the first tight bound on the lower tail probability of the half-space KPZ equation with Neumann boundary parameter $A = -1/2$ and narrow-wedge initial data. When the tail depth is of order $T^{2/3}$, the lower bound…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-28 Yujin H. Kim

We give the proof of a tight lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable exceeds its expected value. The inequality plays an important role in a variety of contexts, including the analysis of relative deviation bounds in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-11-12 Spencer Greenberg , Mehryar Mohri

Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

Models based on assumptions of multivariate regular variation and hidden regular variation provide ways to describe a broad range of extremal dependence structures when marginal distributions are heavy tailed. Multivariate regular variation…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Janet E. Heffernan , Sidney I. Resnick

Given a finite collection of stochastic alternatives, we study the problem of sequentially allocating a fixed sampling budget to identify the optimal alternative with a high probability, where the optimal alternative is defined as the one…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Dohyun Ahn , Taeho Kim

For a fixed positive integer $\;k,\;$ limit laws of linearly normalized $\;k$-th upper order statistics are well known. In this article, a comprehensive study of tail behaviours of limit laws of normalized $k$-th upper order statistics…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-11 Sreenivasan Ravi , Mandagere Chandrashekhar Manohar

This paper develops asymptotic approximations of $P(\int_Te^{f(t)}\,dt>b)$ as $b\rightarrow\infty$ for a homogeneous smooth Gaussian random field, $f$, living on a compact $d$-dimensional Jordan measurable set $T$. The integral of an…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-29 Jingchen Liu

The sums and maxima of non-stationary random length sequences of regularly varying random variables may have the same tail and extremal indices, Markovich and Rodionov (2020). The main constraint is that there exists a unique series in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-11 Natalia Markovich

We study the sharp bounds of $\mathbb{E}[X_1\cdots X_d]$ when the univariate marginal distributions are known, but the dependence structure between them is unspecified. Maximizing products over non-negative variables is straightforward via…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Christopher Blier-Wong , Jinghui Chen

Let $X_1,\dots,X_n$ be independent nonnegative random variables (r.v.'s), with $S_n:=X_1+\dots+X_n$ and finite values of $s_i:=E X_i^2$ and $m_i:=E X_i>0$. Exact upper bounds on $E f(S_n)$ for all functions $f$ in a certain class…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-17 Iosif Pinelis

We study the generalization properties of unregularized gradient methods applied to separable linear classification -- a setting that has received considerable attention since the pioneering work of Soudry et al. (2018). We establish tight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Matan Schliserman , Tomer Koren

Hoeffding has shown that tail bounds on the distribution for sampling from a finite population with replacement also apply to the corresponding cases of sampling without replacement. (A special case of this result is that binomial tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-11 Kyle J. Luh , Nicholas Pippenger

We obtain assumption-free, non-asymptotic, uniform bounds on the product of the height and the width of uniformly random trees with a given degree sequence, conditioned Bienaym\'e trees and simply generated trees. We show that for a tree of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-03 Serte Donderwinkel , Robin Khanfir

A \emph{general branch-and-bound tree} is a branch-and-bound tree which is allowed to use general disjunctions of the form $\pi^{\top} x \leq \pi_0 \,\vee\, \pi^{\top}x \geq \pi_0 + 1$, where $\pi$ is an integer vector and $\pi_0$ is an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-20 Santanu S. Dey , Yatharth Dubey , Marco Molinaro

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Etrit Haxholli , Marco Lorenzi

We propose a new measure related with tail dependence in terms of correlation: quantile correlation coefficient of random variables X, Y. The quantile correlation is defined by the geometric mean of two quantile regression slopes of X on Y…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-19 Ji-Eun Choi , Dong Wan Shin

There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-05 Anja Janßen , Sebastian Neblung , Stilian Stoev

For the basic maximum likelihood estimating function of the two parameters Weibull distribution, a simple proof on its global monotonicity is given to ensure the existence and uniqueness of its solution. The boundary of the function's…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-10-04 DeTao Mao , Wenyuan Li