Related papers: On a Tail Bound for Root-Finding in Randomly Growi…
We establish Hoeffding-type concentration inequalities for the low and high tail bounds of sums of exchangeable random variables. Our results exhibit an anti-symmetry in such tail bounds due to the assumption of exchangeability, a…
Known Bernstein-type upper bounds on the tail probabilities for sums of independent zero-mean sub-exponential random variables are improved in several ways at once. The new upper bounds have a certain optimality property.
Let $Y=\sum_{k\ge 1} 1_{A_k}$ be an infinite sum of the indicators of independent events. We investigate a precise (as opposed to logarithmic) first-order asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{Y\ge n\}$ and the point…
Despite the ubiquitous use of stochastic optimization algorithms in machine learning, the precise impact of these algorithms and their dynamics on generalization performance in realistic non-convex settings is still poorly understood. While…
We say that a random integer variable $X$ is monotone if the modulus of the characteristic function of $X$ is decreasing on $[0,\pi]$. This is the case for many commonly encountered variables, e.g., Bernoulli, Poisson and geometric random…
We consider solutions to the maximum recursion on weighted branching trees given by$$X\,{\buildrel d\over=}\,\bigvee_{i=1}^{N}{A_iX_i}\vee B,$$where $N$ is a random natural number, $B$ and $\{A_i\}_{i\in\mathbb{N}}$ are random positive…
We establish a rather sharp two-side estimate for the tail probability of the derivative martingale limit in a branching random walk throughout the entire subcritical regime, confirming a conjecture by Lacoin, Rhodes, and Vargas (\emph{Duke…
The asymptotic tail behaviour of sums of independent subexponential random variables is well understood, one of the main characteristics being the principle of the single big jump. We study the case of dependent subexponential random…
We show that the naive mean-field approximation correctly predicts the leading term of the logarithmic lower tail probabilities for the number of copies of a given subgraph in $G(n,p)$ and of arithmetic progressions of a given length in…
In this work, we propose a class of importance sampling (IS) estimators for estimating the right tail probability of a sum of continuous random variables based on a change of variables to $L^1$ polar coordinates in which the radial and…
The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…
In this paper, we will give a sufficient condition for a non-negative random variable $X$ to be heavy tailed by investigating the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the probability distribution function. We focus on the relation between the…
In this paper, we study dependence uncertainty and the resulting effects on tail risk measures, which play a fundamental role in modern risk management. We introduce the notion of a regular dependence measure, defined on multi-marginal…
We establish uniform sub-exponential tail bounds for the width, height and maximal outdegree of critical Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson trees conditioned on having a large fixed size, whose offspring distribution belongs to the domain of…
Suppose that $X$ is a bounded-degree polynomial with nonnegative coefficients on the $p$-biased discrete hypercube. Our main result gives sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper tail probability of $X$ whenever an associated extremal…
Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…
In this article, we introduce the notion of free subexponentiality, which extends the notion of subexponentiality in the classical probability setup to the noncommutative probability spaces under freeness. We show that distributions with…
A common bottleneck in evaluating extremal performance measures is that, due to their very nature, tail data are often very limited. The conventional approach selects the best probability distribution from tail data using parametric…
We derive exponential bounds for tail of distribution for natural, i.e. under ordinary logarithm, normalized sums of arrays of random variables, not necessarily independent.
In 1976, Gallagher showed that, conditional on the Hardy--Littlewood conjectures, the number of primes below $x$ in a randomly chosen short interval of length $\lambda \log x$ asymptotically follows a Poisson distribution with mean…