Related papers: Stochastic precedence and minima among dependent v…
We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…
Let $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ be a continuous time Markov process on some metric space $M,$ leaving invariant a closed subset $M_0 \subset M,$ called the {\em extinction set}. We give general conditions ensuring either "Stochastic persistence"…
The persistence of a stochastic variable is the probability that it does not cross a given level during a fixed time interval. Although persistence is a simple concept to understand, it is in general hard to calculate. Here we consider zero…
The focus of a survival study is partly on the distribution of survival times, and partly on the health or quality of life of patients while they live. Health varies over time, and survival is the most basic aspect of health, so the two…
There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…
We provide conditions for the stochastic dominance comparisons of a risk $X$ and an associated risk $X+Z$, where $Z$ represents the uncertainty due to the environment and where $X$ and $Z$ can be dependent. The comparisons depend on both…
Non-deterministic measurements are common in real-world scenarios: the performance of a stochastic optimization algorithm or the total reward of a reinforcement learning agent in a chaotic environment are just two examples in which…
For $(X_t)$ a two-sided $\alpha$-stable moving average, this paper studies the conditional distribution of future paths given a piece of observed trajectory when the process is far from its central values. Under this framework, vectors of…
The moments of random variables are fundamental statistical measures for characterizing the shape of a probability distribution, encompassing metrics such as mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Additionally, the product moments,…
The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment…
An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully…
We consider the problem of minimizing a convex function that is evolving according to unknown and possibly stochastic dynamics, which may depend jointly on time and on the decision variable itself. Such problems abound in the machine…
Switching ARMA models greatly enhance the standard linear models to the extent that different ARMA model is allowed in a different regime, and the regime switching is typically assumed a Markov chain on the finite states of potential…
Variational inequalities have gained significant attention in machine learning and optimization research. While stochastic methods for solving these problems typically assume independent data sampling, we investigate an alternative approach…
It is argued that, for strongly non-linear behaviors, a fully deterministic position can hardly be maintained in the micro-macro transitions. This is due to the lack of information on the relevant boundary conditions, and to the tendency of…
To answer questions of "causes of effects", the probability of necessity is introduced for assessing whether or not an observed outcome was caused by an earlier treatment. However, the statistical inference for probability of necessity is…
Variational inference is a popular method for estimating model parameters and conditional distributions in hierarchical and mixed models, which arise frequently in many settings in the health, social, and biological sciences. Variational…
Given two random variables taking values in a bounded interval, we study whether one dominates the other in higher-order stochastic dominance depends on the reference interval in the model setting. We obtain two results. First, the…
With latent variables, stochastic recurrent models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in modeling sound-wave sequence. However, opposite results are also observed in other domains, where standard recurrent networks often outperform…
Stochastic dynamical systems arise naturally across nearly all areas of science and engineering. Typically, a dynamical system model is based on some prior knowledge about the underlying dynamics of interest in which probabilistic features…