Related papers: Shifting attention to old age: Detecting mortality…
We develop an asymptotic statistical theory for parameter estimation from a class of non-i.i.d. periodic binary event-detection processes subject to nonparalyzable dead time and gating, which we call "dead-time event detection" (DED)…
This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. We…
Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in…
Heart failure affects millions of people worldwide, significantly reducing quality of life and leading to high mortality rates. Despite extensive research, the relationship between heart failure and mortality rates among ICU patients is not…
In a view for a simple model where natural selection at the individual level is confronted to selection effects at the group level, we consider some individual-based models of some large population subdivided into a large number of groups.…
We consider an evolving random discrete tree model called Preferential Attachment with Vertex Death, as introduced by Deijfen. Initialised with an alive root labelled $1$, at each step $n\geq1$ either a new vertex with label $n+1$ is…
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…
Separate modelling of cause specific mortality rates and their projections can yield inconsistent forecasts when the sum of deaths by cause does not match the total observed in a population. We develop a hierarchical probabilistic framework…
Factorized Information Criterion (FIC) is a recently developed information criterion, based on which a novel model selection methodology, namely Factorized Asymptotic Bayesian (FAB) Inference, has been developed and successfully applied to…
This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…
In low-resource settings where vital registration of death is not routine it is often of critical interest to determine and study the cause of death (COD) for individuals and the cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) for populations.…
The Health and Retirement Study is a longitudinal study of US adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive score of subjects. Our analysis was…
Recent advances in generative modeling have led to an increased interest in the study of statistical divergences as means of model comparison. Commonly used evaluation methods, such as the Frechet Inception Distance (FID), correlate well…
Age-disaggregated health data is crucial for effective public health planning and monitoring. Monitoring under-five mortality, for example, requires highly detailed age data since the distribution of potential causes of death varies…
We derive a central limit theorem for a spatial $\Lambda$-Fleming-Viot model with fluctuating population size. At each reproduction, a proportion of the population dies and is replaced by a not necessarily equal mass of new individuals. The…
Macro-level modeling is still the dominant approach in many demographic applications because of its simplicity. Individual-level models, on the other hand, provide a more comprehensive understanding of observed patterns; however, their…
A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (ASDRs). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and…
Joint models initially dedicated to a single longitudinal marker and a single time-to-event need to be extended to account for the rich longitudinal data of cohort studies. Multiple causes of clinical progression are indeed usually…
A reduced-bias nonparametric estimator of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and the survival function is proposed using infinite-order kernels. Fourier transform theory on generalized functions is utilized to obtain the improved…
In this article, we use the illness-death model to present a mathematical framework for studying the compression of morbidity (COM) hypothesis. It turns out that questions about COM are completely determined by the transition rates in the…