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Alzheimer's dementia (AD) is of increasing concern as populations achieve longer lifespans. Many of the recent failed AD clinical trials recruiting cognitively intact individuals had a low number of AD events and were thus underpowered.…
A common goal in modeling demographic rates is to compare two or more groups. For ex- ample comparing mortality rates between men and women or between geographic regions may reveal health inequalities. A popular class of models for…
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social…
Multivariate functional data that are cross-sectionally compositional data are attracting increasing interest in the statistical modeling literature, a major example being trajectories over time of compositions derived from cause-specific…
We use a simple model for biological ageing to study the mortality of the population, obtaining a good agreement with the Gompertz law. We also simulate the same model on a square lattice, considering different strategies of parental care.…
Demographic data and recent experiments verify earlier predictions that mortality has short (few percent of the life span) memory of the previous life history, may be significantly decreased, reset to its value at a much younger age, and…
Chronic diseases are long-lasting conditions that require lifelong medical attention. Using big EMR data, we have developed early disease risk prediction models for five common chronic diseases: diabetes, hypertension, CKD, COPD, and…
Bet-hedging is a phenotype diversification strategy that combines a fast-growing vulnerable phenotype with a slow-growing resistant phenotype. In environments switching between favorable and unfavorable conditions, bet-hedging optimizes…
We introduce a compositional power transformation, known as an {\alpha}-transformation, to model and forecast a time series of life-table death counts, possibly with zero counts observed at older ages. As a generalisation of the isometric…
Risk prediction is central to both clinical medicine and public health. While many machine learning models have been developed to predict mortality, they are rarely applied in the clinical literature, where classification tasks typically…
Aging is associated with the accumulation of damage throughout a persons life. Individual health can be assessed by the Frailty Index (FI). The FI is calculated simply as the proportion $f$ of accumulated age related deficits relative to…
Recent methodological advances are enabling better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing…
The risk of dying increases exponentially with age, in humans as well as in many other species. This increase is often attributed to the "accumulation of damage" known to occur in many biological structures and systems. The aim of this…
Some populations, such as red blood cells (RBCs), exhibit a pattern of population decline that is closer to linear rather than exponential, which has proven to be unexpectedly challenging to describe with a single simple mathematical model.…
This article is a presentation of specific recent results describing scaling limits of individual-based models. Thanks to them, we wish to relate the time-scales typical of demographic dynamics and natural selection to the parameters of the…
This work proposes a method for modeling and forecasting mortality rates. It constitutes an improvement over previous studies by incorporating both the historical evolution of the mortality phenomenon and its random behavior. In the first…
When using the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) for assessing and ranking candidate models with respect to how well they do for a given estimation task, it is customary to produce a so-called FIC plot. This plot has the different point…
It is proposed to investigate the onset of a disease D, based on several risk factors., with a specific interest in Alzheimer occurrence. For that purpose, two classes of techniques are available, whose properties are quite different in…
To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort…
Forward and inverse models are used throughout different engineering fields to predict and understand the behaviour of systems and to find parameters from a set of observations. These models use root-finding and minimisation techniques…