Related papers: Solar flare forecasting using morphological proper…
Current operational forecasts of solar eruptions are made by human experts using a combination of qualitative shape-based classification systems and historical data about flaring frequencies. In the past decade, there has been a great deal…
We apply a novel pre-flare tracking of sunspot groups towards improving the estimation of flare onset time by focusing on the evolution of the 3D magnetic field construction of AR 11429. The 3D magnetic structure is based on potential field…
Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare…
The light curves of solar flares in the impulsive phase are complex in general, indicating that multiple physical processes are involved in. With the GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) observations, we find that there…
Stellar flare events are critical observational samples for astronomical research; however, recorded flare events remain limited. Stellar flare forecasting can provide additional flare event samples to support research efforts. Despite this…
Sunspots are the most important indicator of the magnetic activity on the solar surface during a cycle. Every sunspot group is formed and shaped by the magnetic field of the Sun. Hence, the magnetic field intensity shows itself as the size…
Superflares on solar-type stars has been a rapidly developing field ever since the launch of $\it Kepler$. Over the years, there have been several studies investigating the statistics of these explosive events. In this study, we present a…
In this paper, we introduce a novel methodology for leveraging shape-based characteristics of magnetograms of active region (AR) patches and provide a novel capability for predicting solar flares covering the entirety of the solar disk (AR…
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), especially the larger ones, emanate from active regions (ARs). With the aim to understand the magnetic properties that govern such flares and eruptions, we systematically survey all flare…
Aims. In this paper, we aim to study the time dependence of sunspot group areas in a large sample composed of various databases spanning over 130 years, used state-of-the-art statistical methods. Methods. For a carefully selected but…
Solar flares are known to generate seismic waves in the Sun. We present a detailed analysis of seismic emission in sunspots accompanying M- and X-class solar flares. For this purpose, we have used high-resolution Dopplergrams and…
Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…
We study the prediction of solar flare size and time-to-flare using 38 features describing magnetic complexity of the photospheric magnetic field. This work uses support vector regression to formulate a mapping from the 38-dimensional…
Solar flares create adverse space weather impacting space and Earth-based technologies. However, the difficulty of forecasting flares, and by extension severe space weather, is accentuated by the lack of any unique flare trigger or a single…
The statistical characteristic of stellar flares at optical bands has received an extensive study, but it remains to be studied at soft X-ray bands, in particular for solar-type stars. Here, we present a statistical study of soft X-ray…
We report the latest statistical analyses of superflares on solar-type (G-type main-sequence; effective temperature is 5100 - 6000 K) stars using all of the $Kepler$ primary mission data, and $Gaia$-DR2 (Data Release 2) catalog. We updated…
We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…
Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and recent developments in machine learning and deep learning accelerated the adoption of complex models for data-driven solar flare forecasting. In this work, we…
This paper develops a planetary model to predict the occurrence of intermediate range periodicity in solar activity, in particular the ~155 day Rieger periodicity in flare activity. It is shown that periodicity at half integer multiples of…
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…