Related papers: Solar flare forecasting using morphological proper…
Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…
Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time…
Several papers provide evidences that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare producing areas the present work intends to…
A number of methods of flare prediction rely on classification of physical characteristics of an active region, in particular optical classification of sunspots, and historical rates of flaring for a given classification. However these…
A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…
It is widely assumed that the most probable sites of flare occurrences are the locations of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in the active regions. Instead of magnetograms the present work checks this assumption by using sunspot…
Solar flares originate from magnetically active regions but not all solar active regions give rise to a flare. Therefore, the challenge of solar flare prediction benefits by an intelligent computational analysis of physics-based properties…
Solar flares are among the most severe space weather phenomena, and they have the capacity to generate radiation storms and radio disruptions on Earth. The accurate prediction of solar flare events remains a significant challenge, requiring…
A test of a new Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction (Wheatland 2004a) is presented. The approach uses the past history of flaring together with phenomenological rules of flare statistics to make a prediction for the probability of…
The forecast method introduced by Kors\'os et al.(2014) is generalised from the horizontal magnetic gradient (GM), defined between two opposite polarity spots, to all spots within an appropriately defined region close to the magnetic…
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to…
One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…
The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity.…
Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…
Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…
We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…
Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task…
Solar flares are the most explosive phenomena in the solar system and the main trigger of the events' chain that starts from Coronal Mass Ejections and leads to geomagnetic storms with possible impacts on the infrastructures at Earth.…
This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems…