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Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

This paper considers inference in a linear instrumental variable regression model with many potentially weak instruments, in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. I first show that existing test procedures, including those that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-24 Luther Yap

We combine Bayesian prediction and weighted inference as a unified approach to survey inference. The general principles of Bayesian analysis imply that models for survey outcomes should be conditional on all variables that affect the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Yajuan Si , Rob Trangucci , Jonah Sol Gabry , Andrew Gelman

Inference networks of traditional Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are typically amortized, resulting in relatively inaccurate posterior approximation compared to instance-wise variational optimization. Recent semi-amortized approaches were…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-18 Minyoung Kim , Vladimir Pavlovic

Importance-weighted risk minimization is a key ingredient in many machine learning algorithms for causal inference, domain adaptation, class imbalance, and off-policy reinforcement learning. While the effect of importance weighting is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-17 Jonathon Byrd , Zachary C. Lipton

Importance Sampling methods are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions or some of their moments. In its standard approach, samples are drawn from a single proposal distribution and weighted properly. However, since the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Ruoning Zhao , Xinyun Chen

In the time of Big Data, training complex models on large-scale data sets is challenging, making it appealing to reduce data volume for saving computation resources by subsampling. Most previous works in subsampling are weighted methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-14 Zifeng Wang , Hong Zhu , Zhenhua Dong , Xiuqiang He , Shao-Lun Huang

Computing the exact likelihood of data in large Bayesian networks consisting of thousands of vertices is often a difficult task. When these models contain many deterministic conditional probability tables and when the observed values are…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-26 Ydo Wexler , Dan Geiger

High-dimensional group inference is an essential part of statistical methods for analysing complex data sets, including hierarchical testing, tests of interaction, detection of heterogeneous treatment effects and inference for local…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-01 Zijian Guo , Claude Renaux , Peter Bühlmann , T. Tony Cai

Suppose an $n \times d$ design matrix in a linear regression problem is given, but the response for each point is hidden unless explicitly requested. The goal is to sample only a small number $k \ll n$ of the responses, and then produce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-06 Michał Dereziński , Manfred K. Warmuth , Daniel Hsu

A measure of relative importance of variables is often desired by researchers when the explanatory aspects of econometric methods are of interest. To this end, the author briefly reviews the limitations of conventional econometrics in…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-08-25 Akash Malhotra

Random-effects models are frequently used to synthesise information from different studies in meta-analysis. While likelihood-based inference is attractive both in terms of limiting properties and of implementation, its application in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Ioannis Kosmidis , Annamaria Guolo , Cristiano Varin

Variational inference has become one of the most widely used methods in latent variable modeling. In its basic form, variational inference employs a fully factorized variational distribution and minimizes its KL divergence to the posterior.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-29 Robert Bamler , Cheng Zhang , Manfred Opper , Stephan Mandt

Weighted Model Integration (WMI) is a popular formalism aimed at unifying approaches for probabilistic inference in hybrid domains, involving logical and algebraic constraints. Despite a considerable amount of recent work, allowing WMI…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Giuseppe Spallitta , Gabriele Masina , Paolo Morettin , Andrea Passerini , Roberto Sebastiani

Energy-based models (EBMs) are powerful probabilistic models, but suffer from intractable sampling and density evaluation due to the partition function. As a result, inference in EBMs relies on approximate sampling algorithms, leading to a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-10 Dieterich Lawson , George Tucker , Bo Dai , Rajesh Ranganath

Variational Auto-encoders (VAEs) have been very successful as methods for forming compressed latent representations of complex, often high-dimensional, data. In this paper, we derive an alternative variational lower bound from the one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-20 Shuyu Lin , Ronald Clark , Robert Birke , Niki Trigoni , Stephen Roberts

We provide lower error bounds for randomized algorithms that approximate integrals of functions depending on an unrestricted or even infinite number of variables. More precisely, we consider the infinite-dimensional integration problem on…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-02-09 Michael Gnewuch

In the era of "big data", it is becoming more of a challenge to not only build state-of-the-art predictive models, but also gain an understanding of what's really going on in the data. For example, it is often of interest to know which, if…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-15 Brandon M. Greenwell , Bradley C. Boehmke , Andrew J. McCarthy

The use of weights provides an effective strategy to incorporate prior domain knowledge in large-scale inference. This paper studies weighted multiple testing in a decision-theoretic framework. We develop oracle and data-driven procedures…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-10 Pallavi Basu , T. Tony Cai , Kiranmoy Das , Wenguang Sun
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