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This paper develops a multifidelity method that enables estimation of failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate models via information fusion and importance sampling. The presented general fusion method combines multiple probability…

Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-22 Hachem Saddiki , Andrew C. Trapp , Patrick Flaherty

Despite advances in deep probabilistic models, learning discrete latent representations remains challenging. This work introduces a novel method to improve inference in discrete Variational Autoencoders by reframing the inference problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-11 María Martínez-García , Grace Villacrés , David Mitchell , Pablo M. Olmos

Humans are able to accelerate their learning by selecting training materials that are the most informative and at the appropriate level of difficulty. We propose a framework for distributing deep learning in which one set of workers search…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-04-19 Guillaume Alain , Alex Lamb , Chinnadhurai Sankar , Aaron Courville , Yoshua Bengio

We introduce a theoretical and practical framework for efficient importance sampling of mini-batch samples for gradient estimation from single and multiple probability distributions. To handle noisy gradients, our framework dynamically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-29 Corentin Salaün , Xingchang Huang , Iliyan Georgiev , Niloy J. Mitra , Gurprit Singh

Combining information from multiple samples is often needed in biomedical and economic studies, but the differences between these samples must be appropriately taken into account in the analysis of the combined data. We study estimation for…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Heng Shu , Zhiqiang Tan

Inference for models with recursively defined likelihoods is computationally demanding, limiting scalability to large datasets. We propose a stabilised weighted subsampling methodology for accelerated inference based on an unbiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Matias Quiroz , Aishwarya Bhaskaran , Zixuan Wang , Thomas Goodwin

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inference when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We propose an annealed importance sampling procedure for estimating expectations with respect to the posterior.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-26 M. -N. Tran , C. Strickland , M. K. Pitt , R. Kohn

We present a subset selection algorithm designed to work with arbitrary model families in a practical batch setting. In such a setting, an algorithm can sample examples one at a time but, in order to limit overhead costs, is only able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Gui Citovsky , Giulia DeSalvo , Sanjiv Kumar , Srikumar Ramalingam , Afshin Rostamizadeh , Yunjuan Wang

We develop a theoretical framework for studying numerical estimation of lower previsions, generally applicable to two-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling methods, and a wide range of other sampling methods one might devise. We…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-12 Matthias C. M. Troffaes

This works extends the Random Embedding Bayesian Optimization approach by integrating a warping of the high dimensional subspace within the covariance kernel. The proposed warping, that relies on elementary geometric considerations, allows…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Mickaël Binois , David Ginsbourger , Olivier Roustant

Grid search and random search are widely used techniques for hyperparameter tuning in machine learning, especially when gradient information is unavailable. In these methods, a finite set of candidate configurations is evaluated, and the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Radu-Alexandru Dragomir , François Portier , Victor Priser

For the estimation of cumulative link models for ordinal data, the bias-reducing adjusted score equations in \citet{firth:93} are obtained, whose solution ensures an estimator with smaller asymptotic bias than the maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Ioannis Kosmidis

Advances in variational inference enable parameterisation of probabilistic models by deep neural networks. This combines the statistical transparency of the probabilistic modelling framework with the representational power of deep learning.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Tom Pelsmaeker , Wilker Aziz

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

Importance sampling is widely used in machine learning and statistics, but its power is limited by the restriction of using simple proposals for which the importance weights can be tractably calculated. We address this problem by studying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-18 Qiang Liu , Jason D. Lee

Imori and Ing (2025) proposed the importance-weighted orthogonal greedy algorithm (IWOGA) for model selection in high-dimensional misspecified regression models under covariate shift. To determine the number of IWOGA iterations, they…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-13 Yong-Syun Cao , Shinpei Imori , Ching-Kang Ing

Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-11 Cheng-Der Fuh , Huei-Wen Teng , Ren-Her Wang

Even though Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are widely used for semi-supervised learning, the reason why they work remains unclear. In fact, the addition of the unsupervised objective is most often vaguely described as a regularization. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Ghazi Felhi , Joseph Leroux , Djamé Seddah

We consider Bayesian inference by importance sampling when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We refer to this procedure as importance sampling squared (IS2), as we can often estimate the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-26 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Marcel Scharth , Michael K. Pitt , Robert Kohn
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